|
RANK |
PLAYER |
POS. |
ORGANIZATION |
#AGE |
1 |
Evan Longoria |
3B |
Tampa Bay Rays
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Durham) |
22 |
 Evan Longoria is good at baseball. He has very quick wrists and takes short paths to the ball no matter where it's pitched, resulting in lots of hard contact and a whole-field approach. He has plus power already and could grow into more, which would make him a consistent 30-plus home run hitter. He's a tough out who works the count and will foul pitches off to get to something he can drive, but will take his walks and should post on-base percentages in the low .400s. On defense, he has had no trouble moving from his college position of shortstop and should be among the league's best defenders at third in 2008. He has good range in both directions, soft and sure hands, and a strong and accurate arm. He reads the ball well off the bat and adjusted quickly to the faster reaction times required at the hot corner. If the player I've just described sounds more than a little like David Wright, you've got the idea. Longoria is three years younger than Wright today, and while he'll debut a year later than Wright did, he has a similar skill set and upside to the Mets' third baseman, who would have been my choice for National League MVP in 2007. Longoria is the favorite to start at third base on Opening Day for Tampa Bay, making him the favorite to win the AL's Rookie of the Year award in 2008.
|
2 |
Jay Bruce |
RF |
Cincinnati Reds
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Louisville) |
20 |
 Bruce is probably the top power-hitting prospect in the minors right now, unsurprising for a kid who was already well-developed physically at the time he was drafted. Bruce sets up very deep but generates excellent bat speed and is strong enough to drive balls out to all fields. He's played center field but is best suited for right, and has a plus arm to play there. Because of the deep load at the plate, he can overcommit on breaking stuff and can be beaten with hard stuff inside, and he's shown only moderate plate discipline in the minors. There's no reason he couldn't step in right now and win the Rookie of the Year Award in the NL if he's given an everyday job.
|
3 |
Joba Chamberlain |
RHP |
New York Yankees
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors |
22 |
 You may have heard of this fellow. Best known to big league fans as a dominant setup guy, Chamberlain is best cast as a four-pitch starter who projects as a true No. 1 starter. He has a four-pitch repertoire where all pitches project as average or better: a plus 94-98 mph four-seamer, a toxic 83-87 mph slider with good tilt and variable break, an 11/5 curveball with good depth, and a straight 81-84 mph changeup with good arm speed. The fastball and slider are already big league out pitches and in relief, he can probably get away without the other two pitches. Chamberlain has a great pitcher's build with broad shoulders and the height to get good downhill plane on his pitches, and his arm is quick. He's battled his weight in the past, leading to knee trouble, and he had bicep tendinitis in college that allowed him to fall to the Yankees in the supplemental round.
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4 |
Clay Buchholz |
RHP |
Boston Red Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors |
23 |
 Buchholz didn't quite get the cult following of Joba, but made a name for himself by throwing a no-hitter in his second big league start. Buchholz is an unusual pitching prospect in that he already brings two plus secondary pitches to the table, including one of the best right-handed changeups in the game today, with good tumble and fading action, and he sells it well with perfect arm speed. If his changeup is a solid 70 on the 20-80 scale, his curve projects as no worse than a 60, with a sharp, accelerating downward break. His fastball is just average at 89-94, but he commands it well and gets good downhill plane from a high release point. He is a superb athlete who (so the story goes) outran Jacoby Ellsbury in the 60-yard dash when they were teammates at Lowell. And because he's quick to the plate, he should do well in controlling the running game.
|
5 |
Colby Rasmus |
CF |
St. Louis Cardinals
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Springfield) |
21 |
 Rasmus has been very quiet in his march toward the big leagues and up prospect lists. Rasmus comes from a baseball-mad family -- judging by the number of Rasmuses I've seen at some high school showcases, I believe he has about a bazillion brothers -- and has an outstanding feel for the game. His tools all project to plus; he has very quick hands and gets his bat started early, so his plate coverage (even inside) is excellent, and he should grow into plus power, especially to pull. He's a plus runner who gets from zero to full speed quickly, so he should be an asset on the bases capable of stealing 20-plus bags a year. His arm is plus and would be playable in right, but he's adapting well to center field and only struggles now with balls hit over his head, something that should improve in time. Cardinal fans may have been disappointed to see Jim Edmonds go, but they'll love his replacement.
|
6 |
Clayton Kershaw |
LHP |
Los Angeles Dodgers
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Jacksonville) |
20 |
 Kershaw has about as good an arm as you're likely to see on a young left-hander. His arm works extremely well, with little effort and quick movement through his delivery. His stuff is outstanding, a plus-plus fastball at 93-96 with good downhill plane and a two-plane hammer curve in the mid-70s that must cause left-handed hitters to strain their obliques as they try to hold up. He has a changeup with good fading action, but doesn't sell it well enough and right-handers can sit on it a little bit, although he can improve that with experience. The Dodgers promoted fellow pitching prospect Scott Elbert aggressively and worked him hard in 2006, and he responded with a shoulder injury that required surgery in May. They worked Kershaw less hard -- he faced 93 fewer hitters than Elbert did -- but still pushed him to AA before he was ready, and 19-20-year-old pitchers do get hurt. That's the only thing likely to stop him from becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter.
|
7 |
Travis Snider |
RF |
Toronto Blue Jays
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Lansing) |
20 |
 The word on Snider out of high school from his detractors was that he was stiff, slow, a little heavy, had bad knees and so on. The word on him now is that he can flat-out hit, and his detractors have shut their mouths for the time being. Snider sets himself up well to hit for average and power, with a low load, a simple swing and a very short path to the ball. He's got some loft to his swing to drive balls out, with plus power already, but will shorten up to go the other way on offspeed stuff. He's a solid-average runner and has at least a 60 arm in right field. He has a good idea at the plate, and his contact rate should improve as he develops. This was a steal of a pick at No. 14 in '06; among hitters, only Longoria (No. 3 selection) looks better right now.
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8 |
Franklin Morales |
LHP |
Colorado Rockies
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors |
22 |
 The Rockies have done well in Latin America over the past five or six years, remedying the franchise's decision to skimp on that area in the first decade of its existence. Morales is the best product so far, a potential No. 1 starter with two plus pitches and a delivery that shows the ball to hitters late. His fastball is plus at 93-95, and he'll run it in hard on hitters on both sides of the plate. His curve has a big two-plane break with very good depth, making him deadly against left-handed hitters. He has some areas on which he needs to work; his command and control are both below average, and the way he rushes his arm through his delivery (providing some of the deception) may limit how good his command can become. His changeup is just a show-me pitch at the moment as well.
|
9 |
Homer Bailey |
RHP |
Cincinnati Reds
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors |
21 |
 Bailey didn't take the same step forward in 2007 as some of the other top pitching prospects in the game, but it's too early to jump off the bandwagon. What Buchholz and Chamberlain did is the exception, not the rule, when it comes to pitchers without much pro experience; look at Chad Billingsley's first go-round in the majors and the improvement he showed in his second year in 2007. Bailey was in the big leagues a bit too soon, then suffered a groin injury that prevented his return until September. His stuff remains outstanding: a 93-97 mph fastball and a power curveball with a sharp downward break. His changeup remains a show-me pitch, but the real obstacle for him is fastball command, and there are no mechanical reasons why his command won't eventually be above-average, at which point he'll give the Reds the true No. 1 starter they've been looking for.
|
10 |
Fernando Martinez |
OF |
New York Mets
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Binghamton) |
19 |
 It's been fashionable this offseason for some writers to bash the Mets' top prospects, mostly vis-à-vis the Johan Santana trade talks, but this criticism has been way overblown. Martinez's 2007 performance doesn't impress on a quick look, but consider these facts: He played the entire season at age 18 in AA; and he was hitting .309/.372/.409 as late as May 25 before the effects of a contusion on his left hand ruined what remained of his season. He was shut down on June 23 and missed the rest of the year. Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right. To put his development in more perspective, if he'd played a full year at AA and hit .290/.360/.410 or so, he would have been on pace to debut in the big leagues at 19 or 20 and be a big league regular before he turned 21. He's going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.
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11 |
Desmond Jennings |
OF |
Tampa Bay Rays
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Columbus) |
21 |
Cleveland actually had Jennings under control after taking him in the 2005 draft, but made little effort to sign him, so he went back into the pool in 2006. The Rays took him in the 10th round and signed him for just $150,000, less than any other U.S.-born player in the top 40 prospects here. Jennings is a burner with 70 speed on the 20-80 scale, and he has quick wrists and a short stroke that let him generate line drives to all fields. His defense in center is still a work in progress, as he uses his raw speed to make up for late jumps on balls away from his starting position. The biggest question on Jennings' upside is his power, but as he matures and gains strength, his swing should be enough for 20-plus homers a year, with more if he can learn to extend his arms on pitches out over the plate.
|
12 |
Andrew McCutchen |
CF |
Pittsburgh Pirates
TOP '07 LEVEL: AAA (Indianapolis) |
21 |
McCutchen started off horribly in AA this year, but finally turned his season around in his last 40-odd games there, hitting .307/.382/.460 from July 1 until a mid-August promotion to AAA. McCutchen has incredibly quick wrists that give him tremendous plate coverage and result in a lot of hard, line-drive contact, as well as flashes of raw power. The player-development fiasco in the Pirates' minor league system under Dave Littlefield has hurt McCutchen, however, as he doesn't use his lower half and get his weight transferred with his swing, so all his power now is in his wrists and forearms; once he gets his whole body involved, he should have 30-plus homer power. He's a 65-70 runner with good baserunning instincts, and he plays a plus center field. Take heart, Pirate fans: Nyjer Morgan's goofy routes have only a year or so left in Pittsburgh's center field.
|
13 |
Cameron Maybin |
OF |
Florida Marlins
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors |
20 |
The big league callup was a mistake, obviously, but as long as there's no long-term harm done from the time he spent in Detroit, he still has the same huge upside that had him at No. 15 last year. Maybin already shows plus power in games, and the ball really flies off his bat. But his swing is long and gets out of control, and he glides through it at times, leaving him swinging off his front foot and generating less than maximum power. He crushes fastballs, but needs to improve his recognition of and adjustment to offspeed stuff. Even if his contact issues don't go away, he's a plus glove in center with a strong arm and 30-plus homer potential, which would make him an above-average regular with star potential if he can stay back at the plate and do a better job of recognizing offspeed pitches.
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14 |
Matt Wieters |
C |
Baltimore Orioles
TOP '07 LEVEL: College (Ga. Tech) |
21 |
The best prospect in the 2007 draft fell to the fifth team picking due to his bonus demands, giving the Orioles the best prospect they've had since Erik Bedard came out of the system in 2003. Wieters is a tall, wiry-strong, switch-hitting catcher who sprays the field with line drives and shows plus power from the left side. He has a plus arm behind the plate and was 92-94 off the mound as a reliever at Georgia Tech, but needs to refine his receiving skills. The biggest long-term concern with Wieters is his size: He's 6-foot-5, which means there's a lot of pressure on his knees when he squats. The history of catchers his height is filled with players who moved off the position or who suffered leg and knee injuries, including the best all-around catcher in the majors today, Joe Mauer. If Wieters can buck history and stay behind the plate, he'll be rivaling Mauer for that title in just a few years.
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15 |
Wade Davis |
RHP |
Tampa Bay Rays
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Montgomery) |
22 |
The Rays have an embarrassment of pitching riches, with Davis at the head of the class. He projects as a potential No. 1 starter with some improvement in his command and his worst secondary pitch, his changeup. Davis already has three plus pitches in his repertoire: a 92-95 mph fastball with late life up in the zone, a hard-breaking 12-to-6 curveball near 80 mph, and a sharp two-plane slider at 84-87 mph. He shows some feel for the change, but it's inconsistent, and he uses his slider as his main out pitch against lefties. There are some minor mechanical issues for Davis to work on, including maintaining a consistent release point and staying on top of the ball, but nothing major that points to injury or command woes. Davis has a large frame without much projection, but who needs to project on stuff like this?
|
16 |
David Price |
LHP |
Tampa Bay Rays
TOP '07 LEVEL: College (Vanderbilt) |
22 |
As I said above, the Rays are stacked with top-flight arms in their system. Price, the No. 1 overall pick in 2007 and my No. 2 prospect heading into the draft, is coming off a dominant spring season for Vanderbilt where he struck out over 36 percent of the batters he faced. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, including a plus fastball, best at 89-93 mph but flashing 94-95 with reduced command; a late-breaking upper 70s slider with a short break and good tilt; and an 81-85 mph changeup that comes in late down and in to righties. He pitches to both sides of the plate, really trusts all three of his pitches and works in the lower half of the zone. His delivery isn't clean, with some effort to get his arm around his body and a little bit of a head-jerk, but nothing likely to hold down his performances. He could debut as early as this summer and should be big league-ready no later than mid-2009.
|
17 |
Josh Vitters |
3B |
Chicago Cubs
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Boise) |
18 |
Vitters was the top prep hitter in the 2007 draft and could easily have gone first or second overall. He's an offensive third baseman with a simple, direct swing and plus-plus bat speed, making lots of contact and hitting everything hard to all fields. He already shows good raw power to pull and will drive balls out the other way as he adds experience and muscle. At third base, he's rough, but has enough athletic ability to be at least average at the position, and he has plenty of arm strength for the position. He's a star and he should move quickly for a high school product.
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18 |
Carlos Triunfel |
SS |
Seattle Mariners
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (High Desert) |
18 |
Triunfel was born in February of 1990, yet finished the year hitting for average (.288/.333/.356) in high-A, usually the starting point for 21- and 22-year-old college products in their first full seasons. A minor league hitter who makes a lot of contact and hits for average against pitchers three or four years his senior is marked for stardom, and Triunfel's physical tools bear that out. He has a very quick bat, mostly in his wrists, and a strong build with a thicker lower half than you typically see in teenaged infielders. He also has a laser of an arm. There's some question over whether he'll stay at short, but he's built a bit like Miguel Tejada, who's spent over 10 years at the position in the majors and was a plus glove at his peak. There's a risk the Mariners will rush Triunfel -- they rush everyone else, so why not? -- but if they let his bat determine his development pace, they have a potential star on their hands.
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19 |
Jacoby Ellsbury |
CF |
Boston Red Sox
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors |
24 |
It'll be hard for Ellsbury to top his 2007 big league performance, capped off with a world championship and plenty of pink "ELLSBURY" T-shirts spotted around town, and there's a logjam in the Boston outfield right now that will hold his playing time down, barring a trade. Ellsbury's calling card is his defense, with Gold Glove potential -- as in deserving one, since the winners of that award aren't always the most deserving candidates -- and the raw speed to help him play the difficult center field in Fenway. That speed, coupled with good baserunning instincts, makes him a threat to steal 40-plus bags per year at a high success rate, which is a must in the Red Sox's stat-savvy system. At the plate, Ellsbury has a quick, slashing stroke, generating line drives and using the whole field, limiting his potential home run peak to 10-15. He also has excellent plate discipline, making him an ideal leadoff hitter regardless of your school of thought on what a good leadoff hitter should be. There's no wonder he's coveted by other teams when the Sox come calling for established stars.
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20 |
Angel Villalona |
3B |
San Francisco Giants
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Salem-Keizer) |
17 |
The Giants of the early 2000s were notorious for skimping on amateur signing bonuses, giving away first-round picks and doing little in Latin America. So when they paid over $2 million to sign Villalona just days after his 16th birthday in August of 2006, not only was it a surprise, it was a signal that the organization was committing to acquiring top-flight amateur talent. Signing Villalona was tantamount to getting an extra top-10 pick in the amateur draft -- perhaps better, since he could be in the organization for what would have been his senior year had he been an American-born prospect. Villalona himself is very physically developed, with an early-20s build even before he turned 16; while this will probably force him over to first base, it does provide for significant power potential. He has a quick bat and a fluid swing, and has shown the ability to use the whole field. He's a long way off and has only played five games above rookie ball, but the physical promise here -- a middle-of-the-order bat with a 40-plus homer ceiling -- is tremendous.
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21 |
Jose Tabata |
RF |
New York Yankees
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Tampa) |
19 |
Tabata was in the top 10 last year, but a nagging hamate injury ended his 2007 season early, requiring surgery in August. Tabata has a quick bat and great hand-eye coordination, and he squares up balls as well as anyone on this list. He also has good pitch recognition, although that can manifest itself in working the count to get to a fastball he can drive. His raw power hasn't shown up in games, which could be explained by the hamate injury; hand and wrist injuries sap power, and full recovery from a broken hamate bone can take up to a year. Tabata can play center but has been bumped to right field by fellow Yankee prospect Austin Jackson (No. 24), and Tabata should be plus there with an above-average arm. He'd rank higher if the hamate problem was fully behind him, but until that becomes clear, there's still some risk here.
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22 |
Rick Porcello |
RHP |
Detroit Tigers
TOP '07 LEVEL: H.S. (New Jersey) |
19 |
The top prep pitcher in the 2007 draft, Porcello has outstanding stuff and just looks the part of a big league ace. Porcello is already sitting at 92-94 mph and will touch 97 a few times an outing with two curveballs, both 12-to-6, one a late-breaker near 80 mph and the other a slower version in the upper 60s. His changeup shows promise; he turns the pitch over well, but slows his arm enough for hitters to notice. He has a very quick arm and a projectable frame, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him sitting at 95-plus mph in a few years, working his way toward the top of the Tigers' rotation.
|
23 |
Nick Adenhart |
RHP |
Los Angeles Angels
TOP '07 LEVEL: AA (Arkansas) |
21 |
Adenhart was a first-round talent until he blew out his elbow during his senior spring in high school, but got first-round money from the Angels and has become their best prospect and a potential No. 2 starter. Adenhart's best attributes are his command and his feel for pitching, both of which are already plus, but that doesn't mean his stuff isn't strong. His fastball is solid-average at 90-93 mph, flashing better than that, and his curve already grades out as plus, with an almost 12-to-6 break that has just a little tilt to it. His changeup projects as above-average as well, with a late downward action and good arm speed. He can drop his arm slot slightly at times, causing his stuff to flatten out, and he lands just a little hard with his front foot. The Angels have moved him aggressively, so his indicators haven't matched his stuff, but he's just two years or so off from contributing to a big league rotation.
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24 |
Austin Jackson |
CF |
New York Yankees
TOP '07 LEVEL: A (Tampa) |
21 |
Jackson is my favorite kind of hitting prospect -- the athlete with a clue. Jackson was a top basketball prospect in high school, but the Yankees flexed their financial muscles and gave him first-round money in the eighth round, a move that looks brilliant in hindsight because of how advanced Jackson is for a multi-sport prospect. Jackson has good speed, a solid-average arm in center and good instincts on fly balls, but still has some work to do at the plate. His setup is excellent and his path to the ball is short, but he needs to continue working on keeping his weight back to get more power from the contact he makes, and he's too eager to chase the ball up. He's a potential middle-of-the-order bat because of his power and improving plate discipline.
|
25 |
Andy LaRoche |
3B |
Los Angeles Dodgers
TOP '07 LEVEL: Majors |
24 |
Big league teams can do funny things. The Dodgers liked LaRoche enough to give him a seven-figure bonus after taking him as a summer follow in the 39th round in 2003. They moved him up aggressively, gave him a shot at the big league job and decided a month later that he couldn't hit, instead accepting mediocre production from known quantities until they started to fall out of the playoff race in September. Now, after several abortive attempts to acquire a third baseman, the Dodgers are going to give LaRoche a chance to "win" the job over Nomar Garciaparra (who can't field a lick at third and isn't much with the bat) in spring training. Here's the scoop: LaRoche can, in fact, hit, and he'll hit for average with excellent on-base percentages, with middle-of-the-road power. He can play third, but doesn't project as a plus glove. He should be handed the everyday job right now.
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