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Orioles Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt Wieters, C
Four-Star Prospects
2. Chorye Spoone, RHP
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
5. Nolan Reimold, OF
6. Billy Rowell, 3B
7. Brandon Erbe, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
8. Garrett Olson, LHP
9. Pedro Beato, RHP
10. David Hernandez, RHP
11. James Hoey, RHP
Just Missing: Bob McCrory, RHP; Scott Moore, 3B/1B; Brandon Snyder, 1B
1. Matt Wieters, C
DOB: 5/21/86
Height/Weight: 6-5/230
Bats/Throws: S/R
Draft: 1st round, 2007, Georgia Tech
2007 Stats: .358/.480/592 in 57 NCAA games
Year In Review: Wieters entered the year as the top-rated position player in college and finished there as well, despite a junior season that was slightly below expectations. His $6 million bonus set a record for an up-front payment, and while he signed too late to make pro debut, he’s currently wowing scouts with his play in the Hawaii Winter League.
The Good: Ranked by some as the best college catcher this decade. A big switch-hitter with the rare combination of contact skills and pole-to-pole plus power. Outstanding pitch recognition. Athletic behind the plate, he also has a plus arm (good enough that he also closed at Georgia Tech).
The Bad: Wieters’ arm strength is cut down a bit by a long release. Some believe that it will take some adjustments for his power to translate from aluminum to wood. If big catchers concern you, Wieters is not your guy, as he’s larger than Joe Mauer. He needs to work on his game-calling and working with a pitching staff, which can only be learned with pro experience.
Fun Fact: Wieters' father, Richard, was a fourth-round pick by the Braves in 1977 who pitched six years in the minor leagues.
Perfect World Projection: The rare backstop who hits in the middle of a batting order.
Timetable: Wieters' talent, combined with the pressure of being a $6 million man, put him on the fast track. The goal for 2008 is for Wieters to spend a significant portion of the season at Double-A in order to be lined up for a full-time job by the following season. He could move up even more quickly than that.
2. Chorye Spoone, RHP
DOB: 9/16/85
Height/Weight: 6-1/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 8th round, 2005, Catonsville CC (MD)
2007 Stats: 3.26 ERA at High-A (152-108-67-133)
Year In Review: A projectable right-hander began to meet that projection quickly by pitching well, improving throughout the year, and finishing the season with a pair of complete games in the postseason.
The Good: Already has four effective pitches and shows ability to both miss bats and rack up huge groundball totals. His four-seam fastball can touch 95 mph, and the two-seam offering features heavy, natural sink. Both his curveball and changeup are at least average, and flash as plus pitches at times.
The Bad: Spoone’s thick build isn’t ideal, but he’s not short, has fluid mechanics, and maintains his stuff deep into games. He needs to improve his command and control. He also needs to work on his mound composure, and can get rattled at times when bloopers fall in or errors are made behind him.
Fun Fact: It’s pronounced “Cory”; it’s just spelled weird.
Perfect World Projection: A solid third starter in a big league rotation.
Timetable: Spoone took a larger step forward than any player in the system last year, and now he’ll make the big step to Double-A in 2008. If he continues to progress at the pace he showed last year, he could be lined up for an Orioles rotation job in 2009.
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
DOB: 6/10/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2003, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 3.22 ERA at Double-A (137-101-70-161); 6.93 ERA at MLB (24.2-25-23-24)
Year In Review: Liz is a raw, power right-hander. He was effective but inconsistent at Double-A, perhaps best reflected by his throwing a no-hitter in June that was wrapped around by a pair of starts in which he gave up 10 runs in 11 innings. He spent final month in the big leagues, making four horrible starts (11.48 ERA), but looking much better in relief work.
The Good: Liz has the best fastball in the system, varying from 93-97 mph and featuring plenty of boring action. His curveball is a plus pitch at times, and he also throws a decent slider. He's very aggressive on the mound.
The Bad: Liz’ mechanics are anything but smooth, as there are a lot of moving parts to his delivery, and when they aren’t all synched (which is more often than not), his control can be downright awful. His changeup needs work, and some believe that he’d be better off focusing on just one breaking ball.
Fun Fact: In four big league starts, Liz gave up 20 hits in 13 1/3 innings; in six relief appearances, he surrendered just five in 11 1/3.
Perfect World Projection: A power pitcher, with a role to be determined.
Timetable: While Liz is a sturdy pitcher with good stamina, his mechanics and limited repertoire lead many to believe that his future is in the bullpen. He’ll remain a starter for now, because that’s where the value is, and begin 2008 by likely working on his shortcomings at Triple-A.
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
DOB: 3/6/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 5th round, 2007, Texas Christian
2007 Stats: 3.01 ERA at NCAA (98.2-90-50-93)
Year In Review: Arrieta entered the year as one of the better righties in the draft, but his stock fell after he failed to match a sophomore campaign in which he had a 2.35 ERA and limited batters to a .231 batting average. That downturn in production--combined with Scott Boras representation--dropped him to the fifth round, but Baltimore gave him late first-round money ($1.1 million) to sign.
The Good: He has a power pitcher’s frame with pretty good stuff--he pitches primarily off his fastball, which sits in the low 90s and comes in on a downward plane. It’s not a pure sinker, but batters have trouble getting lift off the pitch, as evidenced by just eight home runs surrendered in his final two years for the Horned Frogs. The slider is a solid offering with some depth.
The Bad: Arrieta needs to work more on his off-speed offerings, in particular his changeup. His command could also use improvement. Scouts who saw him pitch during his final year at college attributed his troubles to mechanical tinkering.
Fun Fact: This year was actually the third time that Arrieta had been drafted. The Reds took him in the 31st round in 2004 out of Plano High School, and the Brewers selected him one year later as a junior college player.
Perfect World Projection: A mid-rotation starting pitcher and an innings eater.
Timetable: Like Wieters, Arrieta signed too late to make his pro debut, but he’s been very impressive pitching against the advanced competition of the Arizona Fall League. He’ll likely reach Double-A at some point in 2008, if not begin the year there, and could move quickly.
5. Nolan Reimold, OF
DOB: 10/12/83
Height/Weight: 6-4/207
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 2nd round, 2005, Bowling Green
2007 Stats: .233/410/.433 at GCL (9 G); .306/.365/.565 at Double-A (50 G)
Year In Review: A pair of oblique injuries limited Reimold to less than half a season, but when he was healthy, he hit Double-A pitching hard, shaking off last year’s disappointing showing in the Carolina League.
The Good: Reimold’s above-average power and good on-base skills should make him a solid big league contributor. He crushes fastballs and destroys left-handed pitching (.818 SLG). Also has a good arm in the outfield.
The Bad: Some see Reimold as a mistake hitter who swings and misses too often at breaking pitches. He’s lost more than a step since getting drafted, and profiles as a corner man at this point. His route running is poor. Two straight years with health issues is a matter of concern.
Fun Fact: Reimold is the highest-drafted position player in Bowling Green history, and will need just 14 big league home runs to top Andy Tracy for the alumni mark.
Perfect World Projection: Average corner outfielder.
Timetable: At this point, health is as important as production to Reimold. He’ll begin 2008 in Triple-A, and will likely make the big leagues at some point if he can stay on the field.
6. Billy Rowell, 3B
DOB: 9/10/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, Bishop Eustace HS (NJ)
2007 Stats: .273/.335/.426 at Low-A (91 G)
Year In Review: Last year’s first-round pick saw his full-season debut delayed by an oblique strain, and he never really got going for Delmarva.
The Good: He's a monster-sized third baseman with tremendous power potential, and he shows advanced understanding of the strike zone. Rowell surprised many with his third base play, showing good fundamentals and a well above-average arm.
The Bad: Rowell’s size and lack of speed still has most predicting a slide over to first base when all is said and done. He’s prone to strikeouts, and pitchers were far too successful in getting him to chase pitches. He also looked absolutely lost against lefties at times, batting just .185 with one home run in 85 at-bats.
Fun Fact: Rowell committed just one error in June, and then was charged with 19 over the next two months.
Perfect World Projection: A low-average, high-power corner infielder, maybe in the mold of a less athletic Troy Glaus.
Timetable: While Rowell’s season was something of a disappointment, his tender age was a mitigating factor. He showed enough were he doesn’t need to repeat the level, and he’ll begin 2008 in the Carolina League in what is already lining up as a pivotal season in his young career.
7. Brandon Erbe, RHP
DOB: 12/25/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 3rd round, 2005, McDonogh HS (MD)
2007 Stats: 6.26 ERA at High-A (119.1-127-62-111)
Year In Review: Entering the year as the pride of the system, Erbe completely crashed and burned in the Carolina League, giving up six or more runs in eight of his final 18 outings.
The Good: On a stuff level, Erbe is still very much in the discussion as a top-flight arm. His four-seam fastball sits at 92-95 mph, and he can ramp it up to 97 when needed. His slider has late, hard bite, and his changeup has advanced to more than just a "show me" pitch.
The Bad: Erbe’s struggles were directly related to his command problems, and a change to his style of pitching. He seemingly stopped trusting his stuff, pitching backwards by starting with off-speed offerings, putting himself in hitters' counts, where they would then dial in on his fastball. He also mixes in a sinker and curve, and most feel he’d be better served at this point by just focusing on three pitches. If the changeup doesn’t continue to improve, he’ll likely end up as a reliever.
Fun Fact: One way to get a six-plus ERA: Leadoff hitters had a .424 on-base percentage against Erbe in 2007.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average starting pitcher, but the gap between what he is now and what he can be is significantly greater than it was a year ago.
Timetable: Always young for his level, Erbe can afford a hiccup in his ascension to the big leagues. He’ll likely repeat at High-A, and will still be only 20 years old during the entirety of the 2008 season.
8. Garrett Olson, LHP
DOB: 10/18/83
Height/Weight: 6-1/195
Bats/Throws: R/L
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Cal Poly-SLO
2007 Stats: 3.16 ERA at Triple-A (128-95-39-120); 7.79 ERA at MLB (32.1-42-28-28)
Year In Review: The top left-hander in the system was one of the International League’s top arms, but his big league debut was downright horrible, as hitters reached base against him at a .444 clip.
The Good: Olson has three solid pitches with an average (89-91 mph) fastball, power curve, and decent changeup. He throws strikes and mixes up his pitches well. He’s proven to be very durable since signing, staying healthy and pitching deep into games.
The Bad: Olson got too cute in the big leagues, trying to paint corners and fool hitters by changing speeds; he needs to bring his more aggressive minor league style to the majors in order to succeed. He lacks the one true plus-plus offering to be a star.
Fun Fact: At least he gets off to a good start--Olson didn’t allow a hit in the first inning in any of his seven big league starts.
Perfect World Projection: A back of the rotation left-hander.
Timetable: Despite his nightmarish big league debut, Olson will go into spring training with a solid shot at earning the job as fifth starter. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, but much to prove in Baltimore, and his spring training performance will be vital to his season as a whole.
9. Pedro Beato, RHP
DOB: 10/27/86
Height/Weight: 6-6/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, St. Petersburg College
2007 Stats: 4.05 ERA at Low-A (142.1-139-59-106)
Year In Review: The supplemental first-round pick from the previous summer had a middling full-season debut, pitching consistently well, but rarely blowing away scouts.
The Good: Beato’s fastball touched 94-95 mph at times, while sitting in the 90-92 range on most nights. Scouts generally prefer his slider over his curve at this point, as he throws it hard and it breaks strongly across the plate. Frame-wise, he’s almost ideal, and his mechanics are solid.
The Bad: Beato’s stuff was not nearly as good as advertised, as his fastball fell a solid two or three ticks below what he showed as an amateur. This velocity drop complicated Beato’s changeup issues, as the pitch already lacked a big velocity gap from his heat. Some attributed the problems to some weight gain, as a bigger model of Beato lacked the looseness in his arm from last year.
Fun Fact: While 33 pitchers have been drafted out of St. Petersburg junior college, not one has pitched a single big league inning.
Perfect World Projection: A number three big league starter, with an outside shot of becoming something more than that.
Timetable: Beato definitely took a step backwards in 2007, but with better conditioning he has the ability to snap back. His progress will continue in the High-A rotation at Frederick.
10. David Hernandez, RHP
DOB: 5/13/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/214
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 16th round, 2005, Cosumnes River College (CA)
2007 Stats: 4.95 ERA at High-A (145.1-139-47-168)
Year In Review: The impressive right-hander proved that last year’s equally impressive showing was no fluke, leading the organization in strikeouts and finishing the year on a very high note with an 18-strikeout performance in his final regular season start.
The Good: Hernandez is a true power arm with a low-90s fastball that can get into the 94-95 mph range at times, and a hard slider. He’s a big pitcher and a good athlete who has proven to be highly durable so far in his career. His changeup is at least average, giving him a solid three-pitch mix.
The Bad: Hernandez needs to find more consistency with his breaking pitches, as he’ll often drop down on his slider and turn it into a sweepy, ineffective pitch. Focus can be a problem with him at times, as he’s prone to big innings, as reflected in the disparity between his ERA and his peripheral numbers.
Fun Fact: Hernandez had eight starts in which he allowed five or more runs, and seven in which he allowed one or zero.
Perfect World Projection: A big league starting pitcher.
Timetable: Hernandez really could be just a few adjustments from taking off, but there is no guarantee that those adjustments will be made. The Orioles will have a much better feel for his long-term future once they see how he does in Double-A in 2008.
11. James Hoey, RHP
DOB: 12/30/82
Height/Weight: 6-6/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 13th round, 2003, Rider
2007 Stats: 0.00 ERA at Double-A (18.2-13-4-28); 1.33 ERA at Triple-A (27-15-10-41); 7.30 ERA at MLB (24.2-25-18-18)
Year In Review: The Tommy John survivor began season with 20 straight scoreless appearances in the Eastern League, and was nearly as impressive after moving up to Triple-A. He spent the final six weeks of the year pitching out of the Oriole bullpen, where he struggled mightily.
The Good: Some argue that he, not Liz, has the best fastball in the system; Hoey's sits at 94-97 mph, and has touched triple-digits on numerous occasions. The pitch is made all the better by Hoey’s tall frame and long arms, which provide a difficult angle to opposing hitters. He goes after hitters and mixes in a decent slider.
The Bad: Hoey’s fastball doesn’t have a lot of movement on it, nor does he command it especially well. His slider is good at times, but also inconsistent, leaving Hoey at times as a one-pitch pitcher, which led to his getting hammered in the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Left-handers facing Hoey in the minors this year went 11-for-83 (.133) with 33 whiffs.
Perfect World Projection: A late-inning reliever, with some possibility of growing into the closer role.
Timetable: The Orioles enter 2008 without a closer, and while Hoey has the stuff to compete for the job, he’ll need to show that he can throw strikes in the spring before given the opportunity. In any case, he should spend 2008 in the Baltimore bullpen
The Sleeper: An obscure 16th-round pick this June, third baseman Tyler Kolodny hit .318/.406/.530 in his pro debut for Baltimore’s Gulf Coast League squad, and while his athletic ability doesn’t impress anyone, scouts are true believers in his bat.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2007)
1. Nick Markakis, OF
2. Matt Wieters, C
3. Chorye Spoone, RHP
4. Radhames Liz, RHP
5. Adam Loewen, LHP
6. Jake Arrieta, RHP
7. Nolan Reimold, OF
8. Billy Rowell, 3B
9. Brandon Erbe, RHP
10. Garrett Olson, LHP
Markakis’ game took a step forward in nearly every respect last year, and at 24, there’s more to come; 2008 could be the year when he goes from exciting young player to the face of the franchise. Despite his struggles on the mound and in the trainer’s room, Loewen is just 23 years old, and talent evaluators still have faith in him, as his combination of size and stuff is exceedingly difficult to find in southpaws.
The Orioles system is on a bit of an upswing as they nabbed a pair of big prizes in the 2007 draft. One negative was the number of big-league ready arms who flopped when they actually reached the big leagues. The good news is that there are more pitchers coming up behind them, the bad news is that Wieters is the only sure-fire position prospect in the system. Rowell has plenty of time to rebound, but after that, the hitting class is quite thin.
Red Sox Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Clay Buchholz, RHP
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Four-Star Prospects
3. Justin Masterson, RHP
4. Jed Lowrie, SS
5. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
6. Michael Bowden, RHP
7. Lars Anderson, 1B
8. Nick Hagadone, LHP
9. Oscar Tejeda, SS
Two-Star Prospects
10. Josh Reddick, OF
11. Che-Hsuan Lin, OF
Just Missing: Ryan Dent, SS; Kris Johnson, LHP; Will Middlebrooks, 3B
1. Clay Buchholz, RHP
DOB: 8/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Angelina College (TX)
2007 Stats: 1.77 ERA at Double-A (86.2-55-22-116); 3.96 ERA at Triple-A (38.2-32-13-55); 1.59 ERA at MLB (22.2-14-10-22)
Year In Review: After finishing the previous year on such a strong note, the Red Sox surprised some by starting Buchholz off at Double-A this season, but he blew away hitters at two levels before throwing a no-hitter in his second big league start, and establishing himself as the top pitching prospect in the game.
The Good: Buchholz is the total package with outstanding stuff, outstanding command and control, and outstanding mound presence. His four-seam fastball sits at 92-94 mph, can touch 97, and features excellent movement. It also isn’t even his best pitch. His plus-plus curveball is a true 12-6 breaker, and multiple scouts relay stories of batters falling down while trying to hit it. His changeup is also an above-average offering that features a late and heavy drop. He also mixes in a solid slider, and a two-seam fastball with some sink. His mechanics are smooth and sound, and he pitches with a fearless intensity.
The Bad: Anything here is nitpicking. At times, Buchholz becomes a bit too enamored with his secondary offerings, and needs to focus more on setting everything up with his fastball. Some felt this was solved at the big league level when Jason Varitek called all the pitches. Buchholz was shut down at the end of the season due to minor arm soreness, but it was done purely on a precautionary basis, and there are no long-term concerns.
Fun Fact: While at Angelina college, Buchholz was also the best hitter on the team, and would still have been drafted in the first ten rounds as an outfielder if he'd never pitched.
Perfect World Projection: Buchholz is one of the few pitching prospects around with true ace potential.
Timetable: Buchholz’ ascent is the primary reason Curt Schilling has been spending time writing good-bye letters to his Boston teammates. Buchholz is penciled in for an Opening Day rotation slot, and could be an impact pitcher immediately.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
DOB: 9/11/83
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Oregon State
2007 Stats: .452/.518/.644 at Double-A (17 G); .298/.360/.380 at Triple-A (87 G); .353/.394/.509 at MLB (33 G)
Year In Review: After successful full-season debut, Ellsbury was the hottest hitter in the minors during the first three weeks of the season, and overtook Coco Crisp for the starting job in center during the postseason.
The Good: Ellsbury’s top tools are his speed and glovework, but he’s a very good hitter as well. He makes good contact, uses all fields, and projects as a consistent .290-.310 hitter annually in the big leagues. He’s a plus-plus runner with outstanding instincts on the basepaths; one scout called him the best base runner he saw all year. He gets excellent jumps on balls in the outfield, and covers a ton of ground to both sides.
The Bad: Ellsbury needs to develop better secondary skills to move into the elite category as a hitter. He doesn’t have much power, though most feel he’ll grow enough to be good for 10-15 home runs annually. His excellent plate coverage works against him at times, and he needs to be more patient to profile as a pure leadoff man.
Fun Fact: While Oregon State is coming off back-to-back College World Series titles, success on the diamond is new to them, as their most successful hitting alum in the big leagues is Steve Lyons; Ellsbury’s three home runs in the majors already ranks second.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average big league center fielder and occasional All-Star.
Timetable: Ellsbury’s performance in the postseason cemented his place in the Red Sox outfield of the future. That future starts in 2008, and Ellsbury will be the starting center fielder.
3. Justin Masterson, RHP
DOB: 3/22/85
Height/Weight: 6-6/250
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 2nd round, 2006, San Diego State
2007 Stats: 4.33 ERA at High-A (95.2-103-22-56); 4.34 ERA at Double-A (58-49-18-59)
Year In Review: The big right-hander held his own in Lancaster, then took off once he arrived in the most realistic baseball environs of the Eastern League, allowing five earned runs over 33 2/3 IP in his first five starts for Portland.
The Good: Masterson’s sinker is not only the best in the system, it’s arguably the best in all of the minor leagues. The pitch comes out of his hand at 88-92 mph, touches 94, and features tremendous downward break. Making the pitch even more effective is his ability to locate it in any four quadrants of the zone. He has an intimidating presence on the mound, and his drop-and-drive style gives him some deception.
The Bad: Masterson’s three-quarters delivery is a bit of a concern, as his causes him to often get around on his slider, taking away any depth from the pitch. He made some progress this year with a circle grip on his changeup, but it remains a below-average pitch. Because of these concerns with his arsenal, some project him to be a reliever down the road.
Fun Fact: Masterson was born in Jamaica while his father was serving as the Dean of Students at Jamaica Theological Seminary.
Perfect World Projection: Pitchers like Chien-Ming Wang, Fausto Carmona and Derek Lowe have proven that sinkerballers can have great success in starting roles. While Masterson is in that mold, he’s a notch below them.
Timetable: Masterson’s development has come along a bit more quickly than expected, and he’ll likely begin 2008 at Triple-A Pawtucket. His long-term role with the Red Sox is still undefined, but he could get a big league look by the end of the season.
4. Jed Lowrie, SS
DOB: 4/17/84
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: S/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Stanford
2007 Stats: .297/.410/.501 at Double-A (93 G); .300/.356/.506 at Triple-A (40 G)
Year In Review: After a disappointing full-season debut, Lowrie had what can only be defined as a breakout campaign, putting up great numbers at both Double- and Triple-A.
The Good: Lowrie is an on-base machine. His approach is highly advanced, as he works the count well, and recognizes which pitches he can drive into the gap. His makeup is off the charts--he’s a baseball grinder who plays and practices with an infectious all-out style. Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound and features a solid, accurate arm.
The Bad: Scouts’ opinions of Lowrie vary wildly, with some seeing him as an everyday big league shortstop, and others seeing him as no more than a very good utility player. There is little doubt that with Lowrie’s average speed and slow first step that his range is a little short to play on the left side of an infield in the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Lowrie is just one of 21 first-round picks to come out of the Stanford baseball program.
Perfect World Projection: A starting shortstop, though second base is more likely.
Timetable: With Julio Lugo still under contract and Dustin Pedroia establishing himself as one of the better second basemen around, Lowrie has no obvious job with the Red Sox. He’ll return to Triple-A in 2008, and probably won’t achieve a full-time role in the majors until he or Lugo gets moved elsewhere.
5. Ryan Kalish, OF
DOB: 3/28/88
Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 9th round, 2006, Red Bank Catholic HS (NJ)
2007 Stats: .368/.471/.540 at Short-season (23 G)
Year In Review: After earning a $600,000 bonus that bought him away from a college commitment to Virginia, the Red Sox spent extended spring training smoothing out Kalish’s swing mechanics and refining his approach before unleashing him on the New York-Penn League, where he dominated for a month before his season was ended by a wrist injury.
The Good: Kalish is a premier athlete, and none of his tools grade out below average. He’s an excellent hitter with at least average power, and profiles as a leadoff man with some pop, walking more than he struck out during his brief season. He has above-average speed and is an excellent baserunner.
The Bad: Kalish is still raw, especially in the field. He needs to improve his reads and routes to stay in center field, and his offensive profile creates a mismatch if he moves to a corner. He struggles against good lefties, who showed an ability to fool him with breaking stuff. His biggest issue right now might just be a lack of experience.
Fun Fact: In his final 13 games before the wrist injury, Kalish went 23-for-49 (.469) with eight walks and nine stolen bases.
Perfect World Projection: A dynamic outfielder capable of 20 home run/40 stolen base campaigns.
Timetable: Initially thought to require surgery, a second diagnosis prescribed a rest and rehabilitation program for Kalish, who is expected to be 100% by spring training. To call his full-season debut highly anticipated would understate the case.
6. Michael Bowden, RHP
DOB: 9/9/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Waubonsie Valley HS (IL)
2007 Stats: 1.37 ERA at High-A (46-35-8-46); 4.28 ERA at Double-A (96.2-105-33-82)
Year In Review: Entering the year as one of the top arms in the system, Bowden gained some early attention by being the only pitcher who could succeed at Lancaster, but his showing at Double-A wasn’t nearly as impressive.
The Good: While Bowden has the command of a control specialist, his stuff is far from pedestrian. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and his curveball is a plus offering. He thrives on competition, and seems to find an extra gear in tight situations. While his numbers at Double-A weren’t overly impressive, he was among the youngest pitchers in the league at the time of his promotion.
The Bad: The biggest knock scouts have with Bowden is his funky mechanics. A term normally reserved for batters, Bowden’s delivery almost has a hitch in it and comes in a lot of parts, so it’s easy for him to get out of synch, costing him velocity, command, and movement. His changeup still needs work to become a usable big league pitch.
Fun Fact: In three California League starts away from Lancaster’s high-octane home stadium, Bowden fired 18 2/3 shutout innings.
Perfect World Projection: A third or fourth starter in the major leagues.
Timetable: The Red Sox were happy to get Bowden out of the California League, but that have no need to rush him. He’ll likely spend all of 2008 back at Double-A unless he can rediscover last April's magic.
7. Lars Anderson, 1B
DOB: 9/25/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 18th round, 2006, Jesuit HS (CA)
2007 Stats: .288/.385/.443 at Low-A (124 G); .343/.489/.486 at High-A (10 G)
Year In Review: Another late-round pick who received big money ($825,000), Anderson’s pro debut met expectations, as he hit over .300 in every month of the season except for July, where a .194/.326/.306 line brought his season totals down.
The Good: Anderson’s power potential is unmatched in the Boston system, but he’s hardly one-dimensional. He’s already showed excellent pitch recognition, and the ability to hit for an average, with a swing that scouts point to when asked about the prettiest around.
The Bad: Anderson’s power still plays more in batting practice than in games, and he still needs to learn how to pull pitches with authority. Despite the accolades for his swing, Anderson still strikes out quite a bit. While decent defensively, he’s limited to first base, meaning his bat will have to carry him to the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Anderson’s high school in Sacramento is an exclusive school that costs more than $10,000 per year for students, and features arguably the top high school rugby program in the nation.
Perfect World Projection: A star first baseman who hits for average, hits for power, and draws walks in droves.
Timetable: Add Anderson’s skill set and an assignment to Low-A Lancaster, and that could equal some ridiculous numbers. On a scouting level, some hope that the homer-happy park could help Anderson in developing some habits that allow him to tap into his natural power.
8. Nick Hagadone, LHP
DOB: 1/1/86
Height/Weight: 6-5/230
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2007, University of Washington
2007 Stats: 1.85 ERA at Short-season (24.1-14-8-33)
Year In Review: Entering the year as an obscure middle reliever, everything about Hagadone’s game took a major step forward, as he stepped into the closer role after initially being pegged as a weekend starter. He allowed five runs in just one inning in his pro debut, but then finished the year with 23 consecutive scoreless innings stretched over nine appearances while giving up just eight hits and striking out 32.
The Good: As a six-foot-five lefty who can get into the mid-90s, Hagadone has a very high ceiling. His fastball generally sat in the 91-94 mph range, and he commands it well. His power slider is often a swing-and-miss pitch, and scouts were surprised by how effective his changeup is, which features good arm action and a late drop.
The Bad: Hagadone’s mechanics have come into question at times, as he short-arms the ball and doesn’t get much leg drive on his pitches. While he has the three-pitch mix to start, and will be developed as a starter, he’s yet to prove that his stuff can hold up over the course of a game, or that his arm can hold up over a 150+ inning workload. Both of his secondary offerings could use refinement, as he often overthrows the slider, costing it break.
Fun Fact: Hagadone comes from good athletic bloodlines, as his father played football at Idaho, and his mother starred in volleyball at Montana State.
Perfect World Projection: Hagadone could develop into a big-time starting pitcher, with a future as a power reliever representing a solid backup plan.
Timetable: While Hagadone might be ready for High-A, an assignment to Lancaster might not be the best idea for a full-season debut, so he’ll likely begin the year in the rotation at Low-A Greenville. He could move quickly as a reliever, but has more value as a starter, which will take more time.
9. Oscar Tejeda, SS
DOB: 12/12/89
Height/Weight: 6-1/177
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2006, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: .295/.344/.399 at Rookie-level (45 G); .298/.347/.394 at Short-season (22 G)
Year In Review: One of the top international players from last summer, Tejeda impressed in the Gulf Coast League and more than held his own after a promotion to Lowell, where he was the youngest player in team history.
The Good: Tejeda has all of the tools necessary to be a star-level shortstop. He’s a good hitter with a line-drive stroke who has the frame and the bat speed to develop into some power. Defensively, he has excellent range, crisp actions and a strong arm.
The Bad: Not even 18 yet, Tejeda is still rough around the edges in many aspects. He still hasn’t seen enough breaking balls to make the proper adjustments to them, and he needs to improve in the little parts of the game, like bunting and baserunning. Like many young, flashy shortstops, he’s prone to errors when trying to make spectacular plays.
Fun Fact: During his short stint at Lowell, Tejeda had nine-multi-hit games and an equal number of hitless efforts, but just three contests in which he recorded just one safety.
Perfect World Projection: A starting shortstop with the ability to create runs at the plate, and prevent them in the field.
Timetable: Tejeda’s youth and inexperience leaves him very far from his potential. While it seems like he’s ready for a full-season assignment, he’ll be only 18 for all of 2008, and there might be a need for patience.
10. Josh Reddick, OF
DOB: 2/19/87
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 17th round, 2006, Middle Georgia College
2007 Stats: .306/.352/.531 at Low-A (94 G); .000/.000/.000 at Double-A (1 G)
Year In Review: The Georgia Junior College Player of the Year in 2006, Reddick got sixth-round money ($140,000) to sign, and began the year in extended spring training, and would have made a run onto several Sally League leader boards if he played the entire season.
The Good: Reddick is an impressive hitter, with the hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and raw strength to succeed at every level. He’s a good athlete and has speed a tick above average, and he has a strong, accurate arm.
The Bad: Reddick needs to cut down on the aggressiveness in his approach, as more advanced pitchers will have an easier time getting ahead of him in the count. While he played both center and right field in 2007, his defensive skills are far better suited to right.
Fun Fact: Reddick often got off to a quick start in games, batting .371 (46-for-124) with ten home runs in the first three innings.
Perfect World Projection: An impressive corner outfielder.
Timetable: Reddick’s performance was one of the bigger surprises in the system last year, and like Anderson, he could put up some big numbers in Lancaster. Unfortunately, because of that we probably won’t have a better feel for Reddick’s potential until he reaches Double-A.
11. Che-Hsuan Lin, OF
DOB: 9/21/88
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2007, Taiwan
2007 Stats: .263/.330/.457 at Rookie-level (43 G); .163/.265/.209 at Short-season (11 G)
Year In Review: The best player in Taiwan this year, Lin was courted by many teams all spring long, before finally signing for $400,000 in June. Within two weeks he made his pro debut with Boston’s GCL squad, where he impressed observers with his tools.
The Good: Lin is a fantastic athlete, with one of the better arms in the system and the kind of speed to steal 40 bases annually. He has a quick bat and surprising pop for his size thanks to strong wrists that whip the bat through the zone. The Red Sox love his makeup, and he’s dedicated to his game and takes well to instruction.
The Bad: Lin’s slight frame hinders his projection, especially with his power. He has to work on his pitch recognition, as he likes to jump on fastballs, and is always looking dead-red, leaving him susceptible to off-speed pitches. He has the speed to play center field, but needs to improve his jumps and reads to stay there.
Fun Fact: Lin played his high school ball at Nan-Ying Vacational, the Taiwanese baseball powerhouse that had produced numerous prospects, including Chin-Lung Hu and Hong-Chih Kuo of the Dodgers.
Perfect World Projection: A dynamic, athletic center fielder with star potential. That said, Lin is very, very far from reaching that.
Timetable: The Red Sox will likely take it slow with Lin, who still needs to acclimate to living in the United States, as well as our style of baseball. Spring training will dictate if he begins the year in extended spring or Low-A Greenville.
The Sleeper: Long and lanky 21-year-old Dominican southpaw Jose Capellan was Lowell’s most consistent starter this year, finishing with a 3.69 ERA and an impressive 71-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 75 2/3 innings. Capellan’s fastball is average at best, but his breaking ball and changeup are both above-average, as is his command.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Clay Buchholz, RHP
2. Jon Lester, LHP
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
4. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
5. Justin Masterson, RHP
6. Jed Lowrie, SS
7. Ryan Kalish, OF
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Nick Hagadone, LHP
Lester’s battle with cancer overshadowed the fact that before his health problems, he was easily one of the top left-handed prospects in baseball. By the end of 2007, and including his start in Game Four of the World Series, Lester’s stuff seems to be all the way back. By adding both Lester and Buchholz, the Red Sox rotation will be even better in 2008 than it was for this year’s title season. The great irony to Pedroia’s season is that he outperformed the scouting projections, but lived up to PECOTA’s love for him, but his performance by many is attributed to many to his outstanding makeup--a scouting term that some in the statistical community abhor.
Thanks to a willingness to open the checkbook come draft time, the Boston system is better than ever. If there is one issue here, it’s with the distribution of talent, because after Buchholz and Ellsbury, there’s little that is immediately ready to help. At the same time, how much of an issue is that when your team just won the World Series?
White Sox Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Fautino de los Santos, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
3. Aaron Poreda, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Chris Carter, 1B
5. John Shelby, CF
6. Jose Martinez, OF
Two-Star Prospects
7. Jack Egbert, RHP
8. Ryan Sweeney, OF
9. Lance Broadway, RHP
One-Star Prospects
10. Brian Omogrosso, RHP
11. Kyle McCulloch, RHP
Just Missing: John Ely, RHP; Christian Marrero, 1B; Jerry Owens, OF
1. Fautino de los Santos, RHP
DOB: 2/15/86
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 2.40 ERA at Low-A (97.2-49-36-121); 3.65 ERA at High-A (24.2-20-7-32)
Year In Review: Beginning the year as an obscure Dominican arm in a weak system, de los Santos first blew away the coaching staff in spring training and then was almost literally unhittable in the Sally League, allowing one hit for every two innings pitched.
The Good: Built like a tree trunk, de los Santos gets tremendous drive. His fastball sits at 91-95 mph, touching 98 at times; it also has late movement, and he commands it very well. His breaking pitch is a power curve with hard late bite, and it's a true out pitch when he’s on. He understands the importance of developing an offspeed pitch, and he improved his changeup over the course of the year.
The Bad: De los Santos gets into bad habits at times, and can overthrow all of his pitches, costing him life on his fastball, break on his curve, and decreasing the velocity gap between the heat and his changeup. Some worry that his aggressiveness might work against him when facing more advanced hitters, and that he needs to learn how to set up batters and be more aware of the count, as opposed to challenging hitters with every pitch. If his changeup doesn’t continue to improve, some fear he’ll be limited to a relief role.
Fun Fact: In 18 fifth innings, de los Santos allowed just three hits while striking out 26.
Perfect World Projection: Star-level starter or closer.
Timetable: De los Santos has the highest ceiling of any player in the system, but he’s still at least two years away. He’ll likely begin 2008 at High-A, with an expectation than he could be ready for a look at some point in 2009.
2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
DOB: 9/19/85
Height/Weight: 5-11/185
Bats/Throws: R/L
Draft: 1st round, 2004, Monsignor Pace HS (FL)
2007 Stats: 3.18 ERA at Double-A (150-116-57-185)
Year In Review: After a one-year sojourn in Philadelphia, Gonzalez returned to the team that drafted him but then dealt in the Freddy Garcia trade. He pitched much better in his second Double-A season, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts.
The Good: Gonzalez has average velocity (89-91 mph) on his fastball, but he can reach back and touch 93 at times, and it features natural lefty movement, almost looking more like a cutter on occasion. He uses it effectively to get ahead in the count and set up his curveball, which is among the best in the minors. It’s a hard-breaking power pitch that comes in fast, then falls off the table. His changeup is improving, and his control made significant strides from the previous season.
The Bad: Gonzalez’ smallish frame is a concern for some, but he’s proven to be highly durable so far in his career. Some wonder if he’ll need to pitch backwards more in the majors, and worry that he depends too much on the curve at times. Despite the improvements, his control problems still flare up from time to time.
Fun Fact: Monsignor Pace’s most famous alum is actress Catherine Keener, although political commentator Bill O’Reilly taught history at the school for a brief time in the early 1970s.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average left-handed starter.
Timetable: Gonzalez will begin the year at Triple-A, and should see the big leagues at some point in 2008.
3. Aaron Poreda, LHP
DOB: 10/1/86
Height/Weight: 6-6/240
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2007, University of San Francisco
2007 Stats: 1.17 ERA at Rookie-level (46.1-29-10-48)
Year In Review: After being mandated by upper management to take a power arm, the White Sox found the hardest-throwing lefty in the draft. Poreda completely overmatched Pioneer League hitters, although he had more experience than most players in the league.
The Good: Poreda provides an intimidating presence on the mound, and fires a 92-95 mph fastball that touches 98-99 on occasion. His slider flashes as a plus pitch at times. He maintains his stuff deep into games, and is a good athlete for his size.
The Bad: Because of his low arm slot, Poreda isn’t able to take advantage of his size in the same manner as most big power pitchers. His slider is highly inconsistent-–at times, it's an above-average offering, and at other times sweepy and very hittable. His changeup is rudimentary, but he’s shown some feel for it since focusing on the pitch as a pro.
Fun Fact: During his brief debut, batters with runners in scoring position went 0-for-17 against Poreda.
Perfect World Projection: Poreda is clearly a big-time power pitcher, but scouts are split as to whether his future is as a starter or as a bullpen ace.
Timetable: Poreda’s early-career dominance likely has the organization comfortable will him skipping Low-A and making his full-season debut in the Carolina League. He’ll remain a starter for now, but a move to the bullpen could accelerate his advancement through the system.
4. Chris Carter, 1B
DOB: 12/18/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 15th round, 2005, Sierra Vista HS (NV)
2007 Stats: .291/.383/.522 at Low-A (126 G)
Year In Review: The hulking first baseman proved that last year’s Pioneer League breakout was anything but a fluke by finishing third in the South Atlantic League with 25 home runs.
The Good: A true slugger with tremendous strength and power to all fields, Carter has made great strides in his approach, drawing a good number of walks while greatly reducing his strikeout rate from a year ago. He hits lefties and righties equally well, and has no significant weaknesses against any pitch type.
The Bad: Originally a third baseman, Carter is a poor defender, even at first, and needs to improve his positioning and footwork. He can be guilty at times of trying too hard to muscle up his swing when his natural strength is more than adequate. He’s a below-average runner in terms of both speed and instincts.
Fun Fact: Wikipedia has entries for seven Chris Carters, none of whom are this Chris Carter.
Perfect World Projection: Your classic first baseman, a middle-of-the-order run producer.
Timetable: The White Sox see Carter as a one-level-at-a-time prospect, and he’ll follow that course with an assignment to High-A in 2008.
5. John Shelby, CF
DOB: 8/6/85
Height/Weight: 5-10/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 5th round, 2006, University of Kentucky
2007 Stats: .301/.352/.508 at Low-A (122 G)
Year In Review: Starting the year as a second baseman, Shelby got off to an average start, but exploded in the second half when he moved to center field, the position his father played. Shelby hit .361 in the final month of the season, with 10 of his 16 home runs on the year coming in his last 28 games.
The Good: Shelby has impressive tools, as his quick bat and strong wrists provide above-average power, and he makes consistent hard contact. He’s a slightly above-average runner as well, and he had surprisingly few difficulties moving to center field. He’s a hard-working diamond rat who plays with a lot of energy and has an excellent feel for the game.
The Bad: Shelby isn’t especially big or physical, which limits his projection. He still needs to work on his jumps in the outfield, and his arm is average at best. He needs to refine his approach at the plate and work the count more effectively.
Fun Fact: The oldest of six kids, Shelby’s younger brother Jeremy survived Hodgkin’s disease in high school to become a 46th-round pick by the Padres in 2005. Jeremy then hit over .300 this year at Columbia State.
Perfect World Projection: A 20/20 outfielder, one with much more value if he can stay in center.
Timetable: As a college product, Shelby was a bit older than many of his Sally League brethren, but his late-season performance provided cause for optimism. The White Sox will likely pair him up with Carter once again, but he could move up quickly to Double-A if he continues his torrid pace from the end of this past season.
6. Jose Martinez, OF
DOB: 7/25/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2006, Venezuela
2007 Stats: .282/.348/.437 at Rookie-level (65 G)
Year In Review: The Venezuelan outfielder made his state-side debut in the Appy League and showed off one of the more impressive packages of tools in the circuit.
The Good: Martinez offers plenty to dream on. Tall, skinny, and long-limbed, one scout compared Martinez physically to a right-handed Darryl Strawberry. He has good strength and is capable of moon shots when he gets his arms fully extended. He’s an above-average runner with a gliding stride, and a solid outfielder with an above-average arm.
The Bad: There are still a lot of rough edges to Martinez’s game. While he works the count well, he’s still prone to flailing at breaking pitches, and left-handers in particular give him trouble. He’s overly pull-happy at times, and needs to use all fields better, especially with pitches on the outer half of the plate. His outfield play can get sloppy at times, and he needs to improve on his decision-making defensively.
Fun Fact: When hitting third in the Bristol lineup, Martinez hit .338/.389/.592 in 142 at-bats. Anywhere else, he hit just .204/.291/.223 in 103 at-bats.
Perfect World Projection: Martinez has true star potential.
Timetable: While arguably possessing a higher ceiling than any other position player in the system, Martinez is still very much a diamond in the rough. He’ll make his full-season debut at Low-A, and is at least three years away from a sniff of the majors.
7. Jack Egbert, RHP
DOB: 5/12/83
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 13th round, 2004, Rutgers
2007 Stats: 3.06 ERA at Double-A (161.2-138-44-165)
Year In Review: After putting up solid numbers at the A-ball level, Egbert surprised many by not only maintaining but improving upon his previous numbers in a full season at Double-A.
The Good: Egbert does two things exceedingly well--throw strikes and keep the ball on the ground. His upper-80s sinker is hard to get lift on, as he gave up just three home runs all year, and he can give batters a different look with a four-seamer than gets up to 91-92 mph. His changeup is a true plus pitch with excellent deception and late fade.
The Bad: Egbert’s curveball grades out as average by the more optimistic scouting reports, and some question just how far he can go without plus velocity or an above-average breaking ball; they wonder what he can depend on as a go-to pitch at the major league level.
Fun Fact: Egbert made 14 starts at home, and 14 on the road in 2007. He had a 6-4 record in both situations, recording 84 strikeouts against 22 walks at home, and 81 against 22 on the road. Despite all that balance, he had a 1.94 ERA at Birmingham, and a 4.25 mark away from his home park's friendly confines.
Perfect World Projection: A solid, dependable back-of-the-rotation starter.
Timetable: While Egbert doesn’t offer much in the way of upside, there isn’t much risk in him either. He’ll begin the year as part of a solid Triple-A rotation, and could be among the first called up should the need arise.
8. Ryan Sweeney, OF
DOB: 2/20/85
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 2nd round, 2003, Xavier HS (IA)
2007 Stats: .270/.348/.398 at Triple-A (105 G); .200/.268/.333 at MLB (15 G)
Year In Review: The former first-round pick spent his second year at Triple-A and went backwards. Many believe it’s time to stop talking about projection with him.
The Good: Sweeney is big, athletic, and not without some offensive skills. He has a quick, short stroke, gap power, and a nice feel for contact. He works the count well and doesn’t strikeout often. He’s an average runner who can play center field in a pinch, and his arm is among the best in the system.
The Bad: Always projected to develop power, Sweeney is now stuck as a tweener–-without true center field skills or the power to play everyday in a corner. He’s always struggled against good lefties, and failed to make adjustments in 2007 to address the problem. He played with little energy down the stretch, and did not get a September callup.
Fun Fact: While at Triple-A Charlotte, Sweeney hit .314 while playing center field, but just .234 when penciled into one of the outfield corners.
Perfect World Projection: At this point, it’s hard to see Sweeney as more than a fourth outfielder and occasional starter, though he still has some believers among scouts.
Timetable: While Sweeney has clearly stagnated, it’s hard to see him avoiding a third year at Triple-A without a monster spring training. This next year is absolutely pivotal for him.
9. Lance Broadway, RHP
DOB: 8/20/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Texas Christian University
2007 Stats: 4.65 ERA at Triple-A (155-155-78-108); 0.97 ERA at MLB (10.1-5-5-14)
Year In Review: Yet another polished college arm in the system, Broadway was downright mediocre at Triple-A, but shined in a brief big league showing.
The Good: Broadway is sturdily built, and gets praise for his composure and pitchability. His curveball is a slow breaker that he likes to bury in the dirt, and his changeup features excellent arm action.
The Bad: Broadway is forced to pitch backwards, as his fastball generally sits in the 85-89 mph range. His overall package is kind of a mismatch in many ways, as he has the arsenal of a command/control specialist, yet his walk rate is unacceptable, even for a power arm.
Fun Fact: Despite having over 40 pitchers drafted by big league teams, Broadway is already tied for third among Texas Christian alumni with one big league win; former Oakland reliever John Briscoe is the all-time leader with five.
Perfect World Projection: An innings-eating fringe starter and/or long reliever.
Timetable: Broadway’s late-season performance opened some eyes with the big league staff, and he’ll be given every opportunity to earn an Opening Day roster slot during spring training-–most likely in the bullpen.
10. Brian Omogrosso, RHP
DOB: 4/26/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 6th round, 2006, Indiana State
2007 Stats: 3.74 ERA at High-A (120.1-94-57-108)
Year In Review: The Tommy John survivor began his full-season debut in High-A as a closer, but finished it in the rotation, putting up a 3.39 ERA in 14 starts and delivering quality starts in four of his last five outings.
The Good: Unlike many side-armers, Omogrosso doesn’t use the unique delivery to mask substandard stuff. It’s his naturally developed motion, and he can get his fastball into the low 90s, touching 93-94 mph. He throws both a two- and four-seam fastball from the side, and also mixes in a solid slider and surprisingly effective changeup.
The Bad: Like most side-armers, Omogrosso has problems against hitters from the opposite side, and lefties slugged 70 points higher against him than right-handers. He needs to throw more strikes and find more confidence in his secondary pitches, which he seems hesitant to throw late in at-bats.
Fun Fact: If he gets to the big leagues, Omogrosso will be the first player in major league history with O-M as the first two letters of his last name, not counting those with apostrophes.
Perfect World Projection: While he impressed as a starter, it’s hard to see him remaining in the role, but as a power side-armer, the White Sox are dreaming that he could be the next Pat Neshek.
Timetable: Omogrosso’s starting job was based more on need than a change in direction, but it looks like he’ll stay there for now and pitch every five days at Double-A this year. If he moves back to a relief role, he could be in the majors by the end of the year.
11. Kyle McCulloch, RHP
DOB: 3/20/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, University of Texas
2007 Stats: 3.64 ERA at High-A (121-116-42-88); 6.41 ERA at Double-A (26.2-38-11-16)
Year In Review: Last year's first-round pick was solid but unspectacular at High-A in his full-season debut, but finished the year by getting hammered in six Double-A starts.
The Good: McCulloch’s best pitch is a plus changeup, and he sets the pitch up with a well-commanded 87-90 mph fastball and decent curve. He throws strikes, and has an advanced feel for pitching. He’s shown excellent stamina, and his mechanics are clean-–as is his health record.
The Bad: Scouts see little projection in McCulloch, and wonder if his stuff is good enough for a big league starter and to justify his first-round selection. He became too reliant on the changeup at Double-A, and needs to get back to setting up the pitch, as opposed to relying on it.
Fun Fact: McCulloch was a 12th-round pick in 2003 out of Bellaire High School in Houston, a seven-time state champion in baseball that also produced Arizona star Chris Young and former All-Star Chuck Knoblauch.
Perfect World Projection: A fifth starter who rarely goes more than six solid innings, but usually keeps you in the game.
Timetable: McCulloch will begin 2008 by getting a second chance at Double-A, though his rotation job might be in a small amount of jeopardy. The back-to-back first-round selections of Broadway and McCulloch are the reasons why the organization overhauled its scouting staff and is now focusing on guys with arm strength.
The Sleeper: Seventh-round pick James Gallagher is the highest-drafted player since the Nationals' Larry Broadway to come out of Duke, which is better known for developing pro basketball players. After hitting .332/.418/.534 in the Pioneer League, Gallagher was one of the team’s most impressive performers during the instructional league.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Fautino de los Santos, RHP
2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
3. John Danks, LHP
3. Aaron Poreda, RHP
4. Chris Carter, 1B
5. John Shelby
6. Jose Martinez, oF
7. Danny Richar, 2B
8. Jack Egbert, RHP
9. Ryan Sweeney, OF
10. Boone Logan, LHP
Danks put together some impressive starts during the first half of the season, but he regressed throughout the year, and by the second half was a liability, posting a 7.11 ERA in his final 10 starts. He’s still young with good stuff, but his performances have rarely matched his scouting reports. When the White Sox traded away Tadahito Iguchi in their summer housecleaning, Richar was given the opportunity to cement the second base job for 2008, but the jury is still out as to whether or not his .230/.289/.406 showing was enough to win him any job security. He’s not without skills, and could be an average second baseman in the end. Logan will likely never be a star, but as a big lefty who can get his fellow lefties out with good consistency, he’ll be around for a long time.
Two years after winning the World Series, the White Sox are now a 90-loss team with an aging roster and little help coming from a poor farm system. How quickly things change.
Indians Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
None
Four-Star Prospects
1. Adam Miller, RHP
2. Wes Hodges, 3B
3. Beau Mills, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
4. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
5. Nick Weglarz, LF
6. Aaron Laffey, LHP
7. Jensen Lewis, RHP
8. Josh Rodriguez, SS
Two-Star Prospects
9. Jordan Brown, 1B
10. Trevor Crowe, OF
11. David Huff, LHP
Just Missing: Brian Barton, OF; Jared Goedert, 3B; Scott Lewis, LHP; Matt Whitney, 1B
1. Adam Miller, RHP
DOB: 11/26/84
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, McKinney HS (TX)
2007 Stats: 4.82 ERA at Triple-A (65.1-68-21-68)
Year In Review: The top prospect in the system dominated early and was in line for a big league callup before going on the shelf with separate elbow and finger issues, the second time in three years that Miller has missed significant time due to inury.
The Good: When Miller is healthy and pitching, he remains awfully impressive. His low-to-mid 90s fastball can touch 98, and he backs it up with a low 90s sinker and plus slider. All three pitches can grade out above-average at times, and his changeup is solid.
The Bad: The biggest concern for Miller at this point is his health. He should be in the big leagues by now, but he can't stay healthy enough to put the polishing touches on his game to get there. Despite a big frame and smooth mechanics, some wonder if he wouldn't be better off in the bullpen in order to preserve his availability.
Fun Fact: With the bases empty, opposing batters hit .204/.269/.279 against Miller, but with runners on hitters became instant All-Stars, tattooing him for a .345/.411/.445 mark.
Perfect World Projection: Miller has the stuff to be a number two starter, and if he's switched to relief, he could develop into a quality closer.
Timetable: Miller is making up for some lost time by pitching in the Arizona Fall League, and he's set to begin 2008 back in Triple-A. He'll remain a starter for now, and he should be in line for a big league debut at some point in the season, provided that he can stay on the mound.
2. Wes Hodges, 3B
DOB: 9/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Georgia Tech
2007 Stats: .288/.367/.473 at High-A (104 G)
Year In Review: Last year's second-round pick impressed in his pro debut, flirting with .300 much of the year at High-A, and showing a late-season power surge by hitting seven of his 15 home runs coming in August.
The Good: Hodges is a highly-polished offensive player. He has a mature approach, laces line drives to all fields, and features plus power--he's already showing a knack for turning on inner-edge fastballs. He's a solid third baseman with soft hands and good arm strength.
The Bad: Hodges chases pitches at times, leading to a high strikeout rate. He's a tick below average as a runner, and while he's fundamentally sound at the hot corner, some question his range there. There is a difference of opinion among scouts as to whether Hodges is quietly intense or just a low-energy player.
Fun Fact: Hodges hit just one home run as a senior in high school, but he had an excuse--he broke a bone in his left hand, and could only hit from the left side, the only time he's done so in his baseball career. Even with that handicap, he hit .430.
Perfect World Projection: A third baseman who hits in the middle of the lineup.
Timetable: Just two years since being drafted, Hodges will begin 2008 at Double-A, and Andy Marte is no longer the roadblock to Hodges' future he once was.
3. Beau Mills, 1B
DOB: 8/15/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Lewis and Clark State
2007 Stats: .179/.303/.250 at Short-season (8 G); .271/.333/.435 at Low-A (44 G); .275/.375/.500 at High-A (10 G)
Year In Review: The 13th overall pick in the draft had a historic (.458/.556/1.033) season at the NAIA powerhouse, and moved up three levels after signing.
The Good: Plus-plus left-handed power is a highly desirable commodity, and Mills has it. Big, broad-shouldered, and strong, Mills attacks balls in the strike zone, and coming off of his bat, the ball gets plenty of loft and backspin. He shows solid pitch recognition, works hard to improve, and takes well to coaching.
The Bad: Mills is a below-average athlete and poor defender, already moving from third to first base since signing. He's not much better there, and some feel he'll be more of a DH in the end. His swing is not without holes, and his power-only approach could work against him at the upper levels.
Fun Fact: The son of Red Sox coach Brad Mills, Boston drafted Beau in the 44th round of the 2004 draft.
Perfect World Projection: Decent average, a good number of walks, and 30-40 home runs annually.
Timetable: Mills will likely begin 2008 where he ended last year, at High-A Kinston. If he excels there, he could be in Ryan Garko's rear-view mirror in short order.
4. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
DOB: 1/29/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 4th round, 2004, Serra HS (CA)
2007 Stats: 4.37 ERA at Double-A (146.1-153-68-123); 10.80 ERA at Triple-A (5-7-3-7)
Year In Review: One of the top lefties in the minors was surprisingly hittable at Double-A, but was still impressive at times, firing seven no-hit innings in May, and delivery quality starts in seven of his final 11 outings.
The Good: Lofgren's low-90s fastball grades up a bit for its movement and location, and his changeup baffles opposing hitters and is arguably the best in the system. His curveball can be plus at times, and is more of a slow, rolling breaker. He's big, extremely athletic, and still offers plenty of projection.
The Bad: Opinions vary widely as to why Lofgren struggled this year. Some point to him losing the feel on his curveball and abandoning it at times, others say he lived too much on the outside half of the plate and needs to be more aggressive.
Fun Fact: One of the top high schools in the country in terms of athletics, Serra alumni include Barry Bonds and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
Perfect World Projection: A third starter in a rotation.
Timetable: Despite his occasional struggles, there is no need for Lofgren to repeat the level. He'll begin 2008 in the Triple-A rotation, and his performance will dictate things from there. Most talent evaluators are predicting a turnaround.
5. Nick Weglarz, LF
DOB: 12/16/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 3rd round, 2005, Lakeshore Catholic HS (ON)
2007 Stats: .276/.395/.497 at Low-A (125 G); .143/.250/.571 at High-A (2 G)
Year In Review: After missing nearly all of 2006 due to injury, Canadian slugger had a breakout campaign with 24 home runs and 83 walks--and he doesn't turn 20 until December.
The Good: Built more like a linebacker, Weglarz has as much raw power as anyone in the system, and unlike many Canadian prospects, his hitting skills are not raw. He's a very patient hitter who works the count and waits on fastballs he can drive.
The Bad: Weglarz' swing has a natural uppercut, and while it works for him, it will always limit his pure contact ability. He's a slow runner, and his play in left field was a bit of an adventure at times; his arm is nothing special. He could lose more speed and end up at first base, but no matter where he ends up on the diamond, his bat is what will need to carry him to the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Weglarz was born and raised in the small town of Stevensville, Ontario, also the birthplace of James Kraft, the inventor of processed cheese.
Perfect World Projection: Not a great batting average, but tons of power and walks; sounds like a fifth-slot hitter to me.
Timetable: Despite the missed year in 2006, Weglarz is still at--if not slightly ahead of--his expected pace, because he was just 17 when drafted. He'll begin 2008 as a 20-year-old slugger in High-A.
6. Aaron Laffey, LHP
DOB: 4/15/85
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 16th round, 2003, Allegany HS (MD)
2007 Stats: 2.31 ERA at Double-A (35-29-7-24); 3.08 ERA at Triple-A (96.1-89-23-75); 4.56 ERA at MLB (49.1-54-12-25)
Year In Review: After receiving fourth-round money to sign four years ago, Laffey finally paid dividends by shooting through the upper levels of the system and earning a position on Cleveland's postseason roster, where he pitched 4 1/3 shutout innings in his only appearance.
The Good: Laffey's fastball has average velocity for a lefty, but he commands it effortlessly, and it features heavy, late sink. His slider and changeup are both solid offerings, and like his fastball, he locates them well. He studies his opponents, pitches without fear, and is generally seen as greater than the sum of his parts.
The Bad: On a pure scouting level, Laffey doesn't blow anyone away. He's on the smallish side for a pitcher, and he's likely fulfilled any projection he had.
Fun Fact: While Allegany High School in Maryland isn't known for its baseball pedigree, it did graduate one of the best actors of our generation, William H. Macy.
Perfect World Projection: Laffey has everything it takes to be a successful back-of-the-rotation starter.
Timetable: Laffey is lined up to spend all of 2008 in the big leagues, with his spring training performance playing a major factor in the determination of his immediate role.
7. Jensen Lewis, RHP
DOB: 5/16/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 3rd round, 2005, Vanderbilt
2007 Stats: 1.85 ERA at Double-A (39-27-13-49); 1.38 ERA at Triple-A (13-5-4-12); 2.15 ERA at MLB (29.1-26-10-34)
Year In Review: Moved to the bullpen in spring training, Jensen became a dominant force as a reliever, shooting through the upper levels and ending up as one of the Tribe's most dependable relievers down the stretch.
The Good: Jensen's best pitch is his changeup, a true plus offering that he sets up with a 89-92 mph fastball and a slurvy breaking pitch that serves him well. The reason Jensen is so effective is in his deceptive delivery. He hides the ball extremely well, and some batters have a nearly impossible time trying to pick it up coming out of Jensen's hand.
The Bad: It's hard to define Jensen's exact role. As good as he's been, he just doesn't have the stuff normally associated with late-inning relievers, and to put him in that role might be a risk.
Fun Fact: During his brief stint at Triple-A Buffalo, left-handed hitters went 1-for-19 with eight strikeouts against Lewis.
Perfect World Projection: In a perfect world, the Indians give him the chance to stick in a set-up role, and he succeeds.
Timetable: Jensen will open the year in Cleveland's bullpen; just slightly more than two years after being drafted, he's all but a finished product.
8. Josh Rodriguez, SS
DOB: 12/18/84
Height/Weight: 6-0/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Rice University
2007 Stats: .262/.351/.460 at High-A (133 G)
Year In Review: After a disappointing junior season dropped him out of the first round in 2006, Rodriguez got off to a slow start at High-A Kinston in his full-season debut, but he finished with a bang, smacking 10 home runs in August.
The Good: Rodriguez has both the hand-eye coordination and the bat speed to hit for average and power in the big leagues. He makes good contact, uses all fields, and is patient in his approach. In the field, he turns to doubleplay well and has an above-average arm.
The Bad: Most agree that Rodriguez lacks the athleticism to play shortstop at the major league level. He's an average runner. His skill set is probably better suited to second base in the end, which wastes his arm a bit.
Fun Fact: While Rodriguez hit just .190 in the first inning of games, he nonetheless drew 15 walks against 63 at-bats for a .346 on-base percentage.
Perfect World Projection: An offense-oriented second baseman.
Timetable: Rodriguez is on a bit of a fast track, and will begin his second full season already at the Double-A level. The good news/bad news is that there is no obvious opening for him once he's ready.
9. Jordan Brown, 1B
DOB: 12/18/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 4th round, 2005, University of Arizona
2007 Stats: .333/.421/.484 at Double-A (127 G)
Year In Review: The 2006 Carolina League MVP followed that up by improving across the board and earning the same honor in the Eastern League.
The Good: Brown is the definition of the term 'professional hitter.' He works the count exceedingly well while still being aggressive, and he can hit any pitch anywhere in the strike zone, while adding gap power to the mix. He's an average defender at first base.
The Bad: Thick and slow, Brown is limited to first base, where his offensive profile doesn't really match. His level swing and contact-oriented approach is not conducive to much power. At 24, he's not exactly young and filled with untapped potential.
Fun Fact: Brown hit exactly .333 against both lefties and righties in 2007.
Perfect World Projection: The next Lyle Overbay?
Timetable: Because of what he is, Brown will have to prove himself at every level. The upside is that he'll start the year at Triple-A, so the proving process is almost complete.
10. Trevor Crowe, OF
DOB: 11/17/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, University of Arizona
2007 Stats: .259/.341/.353 at Double-A (133 G)
Year In Review: Entering the year as one of the better leadoff prospects around, Crowe struggled to get his average above the Mendoza line until midseason, but he found his swing after the All-Star break, batting .314/.384/.428 in the second half.
The Good: Crowe has top of the order skills, beginning with an ability to draw walks and a line-drive bat that makes solid contact from both sides of the plate. He has gap power and the speed to turn singles into doubles. He's a very good base stealer who reads pitchers well and gets excellent jumps.
The Bad: Crowe got into bad habits early in the year, tinkering with his swing instead of trusting his talent. He can be too patient at times, putting himself behind in the count by laying off pitches he should swing at. Despite his speed, he's a bit fringy in center field, with some criticizing his jumps and routes.
Fun Fact: Crowe hit .297 when playing center in 2007, but just .128 starting elsewhere, and not in a small sample (15-for-117).
Perfect World Projection: A guy with enough on-base skills to justify an everyday job; if not, he's a valuable reserve outfielder, one worth giving 200-300 PA to annually.
Timetable: Crowe's spring training showing and the numbers game will determine if he starts 2008 at Double- or Triple-A.
11. David Huff, LHP
DOB: 8/22/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, UCLA
2007 Stats: 2.72 ERA at High-A (59.2-57-15-46)
Year In Review: The polished left-hander was pitching very well at High-A before getting shut down at the end of May with a sore elbow.
The Good: Huff is a command-and-control lefty who lives off of his changeup, which features outstanding arm-action and late fade. His fastball doesn't light up radar guns at 87-89 mph, but it's more than enough to keep batters off balance when looking for his change. He works quickly and commands the strike zone exceedingly well.
The Bad: Huff's future might rely on how much progress he can make with his breaking ball, which currently doesn't break very much. His projection ends at big leaguer, as opposed to star.
Fun Fact: While Huff gave up five runs in his final start before being shut down, he began the season with 10 consecutive starts of allowing two or fewer earned runs.
Perfect World Projection: A solid fourth or fifth starter.
Timetable: Huff's elbow healed with rest instead of surgery, and he's now healthy and pitching well in the Arizona Fall League, lining himself up for a Double-A assignment next year.
The Sleeper: Many were surprised that high school left-hander T.J. McFarland was still around in the fourth round. He's a tall, skinny, projectable southpaw whose heat already sits in the low 90s, but he needs to work on his secondary offerings.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Fausto Carmona, RHP
2. Adam Miller, RHP
3. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B
4. Wes Hodges, 3B
5. Beau Mills, 1B
6. Jeremy Sowers, LHP
7. Andy Marte, 3B
8. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
9. Nick Weglarz, LF
10. Aaron Laffey, LHP
While lacking elite-level talent, the Indians do have depth, as well as a young, talented big league team that has already reaped the rewards of their player development system. The best development was that they decided to stop trying to turn Carmona into something he's not, and in response, his performance finally matched his always-glowing scouting reports. As for Sowers, don't give up on him yet. He was hit hard for the first time in his career, and he stopped trusting his stuff and starting nibbling, which put him behind in the count far more often than a pitcher with his kind of stuff can afford; he still profiles as a solid back-end starter.
Cabrera came over in a highway-robbery deal with Seattle last year, and will start in the middle of the team's infield next year. He can hit, he can draw walks, he's the best defensive infielder on the team, and his instincts for the game are excellent. Ranking Marte on this list is the equivalent of a dart throw; you can find scouts who still have faith in his ability, and you can find some that have completely written him off.
Tigers Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Cameron Maybin, OF
2. Rick Porcello, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
None
Three-Star Prospects
3. Casey Crosby, LHP
4. Cale Iorg, SS
5. Brandon Hamilton, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
6. Jeff Larish, 1B
7. Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP
8. Scott Sizemore, 2B/SS
9. Michael Hollimon, 2B/SS
10. Yorman Bazardo, RHP
11. Dallas Trahern, RHP
Just Missing: Matt Joyce, OF; Virgil Vasquez, RHP; Danny Worth, SS
1. Cameron Maybin, OF
DOB: 4/4/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Roberson HS (NC)
2007 Stats: .571/.667/.571 at Rookie-Level (2 G); .304/.393/.486 at High-A (83 G); .400/.538/1.050 at Double-A (6 G); .143/.208/.265 at MLB (24 G)
Year In Review: When not sidelined with shoulder problems, the elite-level prospect impressed in the Florida State League, hit four home runs in six Double-A games, and spent the last six weeks with the big league squad, where he rarely played, and rarely produced.
The Good: When it comes to tools, Maybin is Home Depot. He has outstanding size and athleticism, projecting to hit for average and power, while also being a total burner. He covers the ground in center field effortlessly, and his arm is outstanding. He’s shown a solid approach at the plate, has great instincts on the base paths, and backs up his natural ability with a strong work ethic.
The Bad: Maybin has accumulated lofty strikeout totals so far in his career, and his swing can get long at times. He understands the strike zone well, but needs to improve his pitch recognition, as he’s prone to chasing breaking balls out of the zone, a weakness that big league pitchers picked up on quickly and exploited.
Fun Fact: During his week at Double-A, Maybin stepped to the plate five times with runners in scoring position, resulting in two walks, two singles, and a home run.
Perfect World Projection: A transcendent star who puts fannies in the seats.
Timetable: Despite his season-ending big league stint, the Tigers are the first to admit that Maybin is not ready yet, and not part of their immediate big league plans. He’ll likely begin 2008 at Triple-A Toledo to put the finishing touches on his game.
2. Rick Porcello, RHP
DOB: 12/27/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Seton Hall Prep (NJ)
2007 Stats: Signed late; did not play
Year In Review: Entering the year as the top high school player in the draft, Porcello earned national player of the year honors despite not living up to the almost impossible expectations set for him. With Scott Boras setting his price tag, many teams passed on him in the first round, which is how he fell to Detroit at No. 27, where he was an easy choice for David Chadd considering his affinity for big guys who throw hard. Porcello signed at the deadline for a major league deal worth around $7 million.
The Good: Some scouting directors saw Porcello as the top high school right-hander of the decade, and the best since Josh Beckett went second overall in 1999. He has the ideal pitcher’s frame as well as clean, loose arm action. His fastball sits in the 92-96 mph range, touches 98, and some think there is plenty of room for more once his frame fills out. He throws two breaking balls, and scouts differ as to whether the slider or curve projects as the better pitch, as both already flash as plus at times. Despite never needing the pitch in high school, he knows what a changeup is and has some feel to it. He’s also a terrific athlete who fields his position well and is a very good hitter.
The Bad: Porcello ran into occasional control issues this year, but few see it as a long-term concern. He’ll need to improve his changeup, and some feel he’d be best served by focusing on just one breaking pitch.
Fun Fact: While Seton Hall Prep is famous for its athletics, producing a number of professional baseball and basketball players, it’s also played a role in the indie rock scene, graduating Ted Leo (Ted Leo & The Pharmacists) and guitarist Matt Sweeney (Chavez, Guided By Voices, Zwan).
Perfect World Projection: Another young stud starter with staff ace possibilities.
Timetable: Despite signing too late to make his pro debut, Porcello might start his career in a full-season league, at Low-A West Michigan. He has the ability to dominate the league in the same manner Clayton Kershaw did this year.
3. Casey Crosby, LHP
DOB: 9/17/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/200
Bats/Throws: R/L
Drafted: 5th round, 2007, Kaneland HS (IL)
2007 Stats: Signed late; did not play
Year In Review: The top high schooler in Illinois, Crosby fell in the draft due to bonus considerations, and Detroit scooped him up in the fifth round, then signed him to a nearly $750,000 bonus.
The Good: On pure talent, Crosby was one of the top three high school lefties available this June. Like Porcello, he represents Chadd’s affinity for tall power pitchers, as he’s got the height and can touch 94 mph with his fastball. He throws a hard slider that some rank as plus, and gets high scores for his makeup. Like Porcello, he’s also an excellent athlete.
The Bad: Crosby’s secondary pitches need work, as his slider can get sweepy at times, and his changeup is rudimentary. His three-quarters arm slot turns off some scouts, and his release point can vary when his multi-part mechanics get out of sync.
Fun Fact: He's from a small town (Maple Park, IL) in the far-western suburbs of Chicago. Crosby is the first player ever to be drafted out of Kaneland High School.
Perfect World Projection: A solid middle-of-the-rotation star, with some star potential.
Timetable: Another 2007 draftee who signed too late to play, Crosby’s 2008 assignment will be dictated by how he looks in spring training. He’s not nearly as polished as Porcello, and will likely need a short-season stint for the first dip of his toes into the pro waters.
4. Cale Iorg, SS
DOB: 9/6/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 6th round, 2005, University of Alabama
2007 Stats: .182/.308/.182 at Rookie-level (3 G); .278/.316/.389 at High-A (5 G)
Year In Review: An All-SEC Freshman in 2005, Iorg spent the last two years on a Mormon mission, but was draft-eligible because he turned 21 during his time away from the game. The Tigers drafted him in the sixth round and then surprised many by giving him a $1.5 million bonus--first-rounder money, when most had previously evaluated him as a second- or third-round talent.
The Good: Despite some feeling that the bonus was excessive, it was required to prevent Iorg from transferring to Arizona State, and he does have the tools and size to fit into the new mold of the modern shortstop. He has a quick bat, smooth swing, and could develop a bit of power with the necessary adjustments. He’s a tick above average as a runner, and a very good defender with excellent actions and a solid, accurate arm.
The Bad: Iorg hasn’t played the game for two years, so he was understandably raw in his return. He’s now 22 years old and has just one year of college baseball under his belt, so he’s well behind the standard development curve, with his combination of age and inexperience presenting a significant challenge.
Fun Fact: Iorg’s older brother Eli Iorg, a prospect in the Astros system, spent his two-year mission in Argentina, while Cale spent his in Portugal.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average everyday shortstop.
Timetable: Iorg’s showing in spring training will be the first extended look the team has gotten of Iorg in almost three years, and it will determine if he begins the year in Low- or High-A; the latter is more likely.
5. Brandon Hamilton, RHP
DOB: 12/25/88
Height/Weight: 6-2/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Stanhope Elmore HS (AL)
2007 Stats: 3.10 ERA at Rookie-level (20.1-12-12-23)
Year In Review: Alabama’s top high school arm had an up-and-down senior year, but (and I realize this is sounding like a broken record) as an arm-strength guy with good size, he fit well with the Tigers’ draft strategy and was very impressive in his pro debut.
The Good: Hamilton’s raw stuff is arguably first-round caliber, as he relies primarily on a 90-93 mph fastball that has touched 96 mph, as well as a slider that features depth and tilt and already ranks as a plus pitch. He works low in the zone and generates a good number of ground balls.
The Bad: Hamilton’s mechanics are far from ideal, leading to both command problems and injury concerns. All of his pitches can be inconsistent, and he’ll need to develop a changeup in order to remain a starter. He has a high ceiling, but many see him as no more than an arm strength guy who is too unrefined to develop into a star.
Fun Fact: During his brief pro debut, batters with runners in scoring position went 2-for-18 with seven strikeouts against Hamilton.
Perfect World Projection: A power pitcher; it’s too early to say anything more.
Timetable: Hamilton isn’t ready for a full-season league yet. He’ll most likely begin the year in extended spring training to work on the rougher edges of his game before reporting to Detroit’s New York-Penn League squad in June.
6. Jeff Larish, 1B
DOB: 10/11/82
Height/Weight: 6-2/200
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 5th round, 2005, Arizona State
2007 Stats: .267/.390/.515 at Double-A (132 G)
Year In Review: Following a solid but somewhat disappointing year in the Florida State League, Larish broke out in 2007, leading the Eastern League in home runs (28) and RBI (101).
The Good: Larish has the necessary secondary skills to be a big league first baseman. He has a patient approach, and draws walks in droves. Incredibly strong, he has plus power to all fields, and doesn’t have to make contact on the sweet spot of the bat in order to muscle it out of the park. While his range is below average at first base, he’s otherwise a good defender with soft hands and a knack for picking throws up out of the dirt.
The Bad: It’s hard to project Larish as any kind of future star, as his swing has a natural uppercut that helps his power, but also limits his long-term ability to hit for average. He’s a below-average runner.
Fun Fact: A highly-regarded player after his junior year who went unsigned by the Dodgers as a 17th-round pick in 2004, by playing four years of college baseball, Larish’s name is all over the Arizona State record books, as he ranks second in career home runs, trailing only Bob Horner, and second in career walks, behind Alvin Davis.
Perfect World Projection: A starting first baseman for a second-division team, or outstanding bench player in the mold of Craig Wilson, back when he was good.
Timetable: Carlos Guillen’s move to first base leaves Larish blocked for now. He'll begin the year at Triple-A Toledo, and could be one of their primary trading chips come July.
7. Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP
DOB: 3/12/84
Height/Weight: 5-11/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2001, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 3.41 ERA at Double-A (66-54-19-57); 3.52 ERA at Triple-A (38.1-41-18-25); 6.75 ERA at MLB (6.2-10-4-5)
Year In Review: The hard-throwing Dominican righty put together some dominating starts at Double-A, and spent a couple of weeks in the big league bullpen before going back down to a relief role at Triple-A.
The Good: De La Cruz’s stuff has always far surpassed his statistics. His heat sits consistently in the 93-96 mph range, touched 98 this year, and has hit triple digits in the past. His hard-breaking curve gives him a second plus pitch, and he has an acceptable changeup.
The Bad: De La Cruz’s fastball will never be as effective as his velocity would indicate, as the pitch comes in on a flat plane because of his smallish stature, features little movement, and is often elevated. He prefers to break his curveball into the dirt, and more advanced hitters have learned how to lay off the pitch and sit on the heater.
Fun Fact: In three big league road games, De La Cruz retired eight of the nine batters he faced. At home, 13 of 23 reached base.
Perfect World Projection: A late-innings reliever, but not a closer.
Timetable: De La Cruz will compete for a bullpen role in spring training, and will start the year at Triple-A if he doesn’t earn a big league job.
8. Scott Sizemore, 2B/SS
DOB: 1/4/85
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 5th round, 2006, Virginia Commonwealth
2007 Stats: .265/.376/.390 at Low-A (125 G)
Year In Review: The advanced college hitter got off to a surprisingly slow start in full-season debut, but came on strong at the end of the season, hitting .311/.396/.469 after the All-Star break.
The Good: Sizemore’s bat is his best tool. He works the count well, rarely strikes out, and has gap power. Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound at second, turns the double play well, but he can also play shortstop in a pinch.
The Bad: Sizemore will never hit many home runs. He’s no more than an average runner and can’t play on the left side every day, meaning he has to project as an everyday player on the right side.
Fun Fact: When batting first or third in the West Michigan lineup, Sizemore went 5-for-37 (.135).
Perfect World Projection: An average starter at second base, with some possibilities to develop into a utility player.
Timetable: Sizemore has been impressing scouts in the Arizona Fall League, where he has been playing exclusively at shortstop. While he’s slated to begin 2008 at High-A, the Tigers hope to have him at Double-A by midseason.
9. Michael Hollimon, 2B/SS
DOB: 6/14/82
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
< b>Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted: 16th round, 2005, Oral Roberts
2007 Stats: .282/.371/.478 at Double-A (127 G); .211/.250/.368 at Triple-A (5 G)
Year In Review: After putting up big Low-A numbers in 2006 that were somewhat mitigated by his age, Hollimon skipped High-A, but didn’t skip a beat offensively at Double-A.
The Good: Hollimon has an above-average offensive skill set for a middle infielder. He works the count well and has at least average power. He’s a very good base runner who is fundamentally sound with the glove. He’s a hard worker who sets an example for other players in terms of both behavior and commitment to the game.
The Bad: Hollimon is not especially fast and has already been moved from shortstop to second base; even there, his range is a little short. Because he played four years at college, he’s already 25, so he’s behind the curve developmentally and has no more projection.
Fun Fact: Hollimon his .262/.362/.440 as a second baseman, but was at .339/.389/.585 when in the lineup as a shortstop.
Perfect World Projection: A second-division starter or utility player.
Timetable: Hollimon will begin the year at Triple-A, and his ability to fill in at multiple positions will put him on the short list for a call up should the need arise.
10. Yorman Bazardo, RHP
DOB: 7/11/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2000, Venezuela (Mariners)
2007 Stats: 3.75 ERA at Triple-A (136.2-134-43-69); 2.28 ERA at MLB (23.2-19-5-15)
Year In Review: Acquired from the Mariners for outfielder Jeff Frazier prior to spring training, Bazardo pitched at an acceptable level for Detroit’s Triple-A team, and finished the year with some impressive showings in the big leagues.
The Good: Bazardo’s got big league stuff--his fastball ranges from 91-95 mph, and both his curveball and changeup rate as average offerings. He works quickly, keeps his pitches down, throws strikes, and mixes his pitches well.
The Bad: Bazardo doesn’t have that one go-to offering when he needs it, and he has trouble missing bats more often than not. There have been some makeup questions in the past with him, but those seem to be a thing of the past.
Fun Fact: During his 21 starts for Triple-A Toledo, Bazardo has a 5.57 ERA in the first inning, and a 1.31 mark in the second.
Perfect World Projection: Bazardo could be equally effective as a starter or reliever. His best role might be as a swingman.
Timetable: Bazardo will be given the opportunity to earn a big league job in spring training, but as with De La Cruz, it could be an uphill battle.
11. Dallas Trahern, RHP
DOB: 11/29/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 34th round, 2004, Owasso HS (OK)
2007 Stats: 3.87 ERA at Double-A (162.2-177-51-92); 2.84 ERA at Triple-A (6.1-5-3-2)
Year In Review: An obscure 34th-round pick three years ago, Trahern continued to get the job done, getting off to a great start at Double-A before a late-season slide brought his overall numbers down.
The Good: Trahern is a ground-ball machine, often giving outfielders the night off when his 88-91 mph sinker is on, which is more often than not. He mixes in a slider and changeup to keep hitters honest, but lives off the sinker. He’s a good athlete who is especially adept at fielding bunts.
The Bad: Trahern doesn’t strike out many hitters, and likely never will. His slider can flatten out at times, and his changeup needs considerable improvement. Left-handers feast on Trahern, hitting .308 against him this year with only 43 strikeouts in 318 at-bats. Many scouts are convinced that Trahern’s arsenal will never work at the big league level.
Fun Fact: Trahern’s high school alma mater drew throngs of scouts this year to see Cardinals first-round pick Peter Kozma, and draws throngs of country music fans year-round as stars Garth Brooks and Trisha Yearwood live on a ranch in the small town of Owasso.
Perfect World Projection: A back-of-the-rotation starter that does wonders for his infielders' range factors.
Timetable: Trahern will attempt to continue his conversion of non-believers at Triple-A in 2008, and could make his big league debut at some point during the season.
The Sleeper: People aren’t really sure what to make of catcher Jamie Skelton. At 5-foot-11 and around 165 pounds, he’s likely the slightest-built backstop you’ll ever see at the pro level, but at the same time he hit .309/.402/.448 this year in the Midwest League while throwing out 42.5 percent of opposing basestealers.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies Under 25 (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Cameron Maybin, OF
2. Rick Porcello, RHP
3. Andrew Miller, LHP
4. Joel Zumaya, RHP
5. Casey Crosby, LHP
6. Cale Iorg, SS
7. Brandon Hamilton, RHP
8. Jeff Larish, 1B
9. Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP
10. Scott Sizemore, 2B/SS
Generally seen as the top arm in the 2006 draft class, Miller reached the big leagues quickly, but has failed to really impress, as mechanical inconsistencies have led to control problems and less effective secondary pitches. There’s still plenty of optimism with him, but there aren't nearly as many projecting stardom for him as there were back when he was at North Carolina.
Already a below-average system, the Tigers’ prospect list was hurt considerably by the Edgar Renteria trade, which cost them Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens, players who would have ranked third and fourth on this list, respectively. Much of the organization's future improvement in this regard revolves around the 2007 draft class, for which scouting director David Chadd was given a blank check. The good news is that they are still a primarily young, talented team at the big league level. The bad news is that any real help after Maybin might be a while in coming.
Royals Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Mike Moustakas, SS
Four-Star Prospects
2. Luke Hochevar, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Daniel Cortes, RHP
4. Billy Buckner, RHP
5. Danny Duffy, LHP
Two-Star Prospects
6. Blake Wood, RHP
7. Carlos Rosa, RHP
8. Julio Pimentel, RHP
9. Sam Runion, RHP
One-Star Prospects
10. Mitch Maier, OF
11. Chris Lubanski, OF
Just Missing: Blake Johnson, RHP; Mario Lisson, 2B; Adrian Ortiz, OF
1. Mike Moustakas, SS
DOB: 9/11/88
Height/Weight: 6-0/195
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Chatsworth HS (CA)
2007 Stats: .293/.383/.439 at Rookie-level (11 G)
Year In Review: Already one of the top high school hitters in the country, Moustakas assaulted the California record book in his senior year, setting a state record for career home runs before being selected by the Royals with the second overall pick.
The Good: Moustakas’ hitting skills are nearly flawless. He has plus-plus power thanks to a lightning-quick bat and an ability to consistently get the meat of the bat on the ball. He projects to hit for both average and power, as he focuses solely on contact and lets his strength just work for him, as opposed to focusing on pulling or muscling up on pitches. He’s a solid athlete with plus-plus arm strength who reached 97 mph throwing from the mound as his high school team’s closer.
The Bad: Nearly all questions about Moustakas revolve around his defense. While he played shortstop in his pro debut, he lacks the first-step quickness or instincts to play there at the highest level. He has the athleticism to play second base, which would waste his arm, though he might profile better there than third base, which is more of a 'read and react' position. He also caught during much of his high school career, and while his arm is a major asset behind the plate, he’s a poor receiver; returning there is an unlikely scenario.
Fun Fact: As well as being an athletic powerhouse that produced another 2007 first-round pick (Matt Dominguez) and former Red Sox great Dwight Evans, Chatsworth has an even more impressive list of Hollywood alumni, including Val Kilmer and Kevin Spacey.
Perfect World Projection: A middle infielder who hits 30-40 home runs annually with an average hovering around the .300 mark.
Timetable: Moustakas will begin the year in Burlington, where a hitter with his upside has rarely been seen.
2. Luke Hochevar<, RHP
DOB: 9/15/83
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, University of Tennessee
2007 Stats: 4.69 ERA at Double-A (94-110-26-94); 5.12 ERA at Triple-A (58-53-21-44); 2.13 ERA at MLB (12.2-11-4-5)
Year In Review: The top pick in the 2006 draft reached the majors during his full-season debut, but he was far from dominant, getting hit fairly hard at both Double- and Triple-A.
The Good: Hochevar still has the size, stuff, and command to be a frontline starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s, touches 95 mph, and features good movement. His curveball is his best pitch--a power breaker that often freezes batters; both his slider and changeup are at least average. His command and control are both excellent, and he’s a plus athlete who carries his stuff deep into ballgames and while maintaining a low pitch count.
The Bad: While nobody has an excuse for Hochevar’s struggles, few have a good explanation for it, either. He’s a very cerebral player, some feel too much for his own good, suggesting that he tries too hard to make every pitch perfect, often nibbling at the corners and trying too much to fool batters, leaving him behind in the count and subsequently forced to throw strikes down the middle. He needs to trust his stuff more, trust his defense, and understand that his pitches are good enough to retire hitters, even when they know what’s coming.
Fun Fact: During his brief major league debut, 23 batters hit .421/.522/.684 against Hochever with the bases empty, yet 31 batters with runners on hit just .111/.200/.148.
Perfect World Projection: Few saw Hochevar as a true number one starter, even when he was drafted last year. Most scouts who saw him this year didn’t lower the projection on him too much, though, still seeing him as a number two or three in the end.
Timetable: There isn't an immediate opening in the Royals rotation, so Hochevar will begin the season at Triple-A Omaha, hoping to force his way in.
3. Daniel Cortes, RHP
DOB: 3/4/87
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: White Sox 7th round, 2005, Garey HS (CA)
2007 Stats: 3.07 ERA at High-A (123-102-45-120)
Year In Review: Considered more of a throw-in in the deal that sent Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for Tyler Lumsden, Cortes took every part of his game a major step forward in 2007, finishing the year with impressive statistics and equally impressive scouting reports.
The Good: Big and aggressive, Cortes lives off his 91-94 mph fastball which features some cutting action that makes him especially effective against left-handed hitters. He throws a hard breaking ball that features good downward action, and shows some feel for a change. He finished the year on a roll, allowing just three earned runs over 41 innings in his final seven starts.
The Bad: Cortes can struggles with his command at times, but like everything else, he improved throughout the season. His secondary pitches, especially his changeup, need to be improved, and he’ll need to mix them in more at the upper levels, as opposed to relying primarily on his fastball. He sometimes gets into trouble be working too high in the strike zone.
Fun Fact: While Cortes had an 8-8 record in 2007 over 24 starts, he did not record a win in his first 11, or get tagged for a loss in his last eight.
Perfect World Projection: An innings-eating number three starter.
Timetable: While a number of starters had big years at Wilmington, scouts were universal in their belief that Cortes was preepared to succeed at Double-A, where he’ll begin 2008.
4. Billy Buckner, RHP
DOB: 8/27/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2004, University of South Carolina
2007 Stats: 4.66 ERA at Double-A (19.1-20-6-13); 3.78 ERA at Triple-A (104.2-108-26-83); 5.29 ERA at MLB (34-37-16-17)
Year In Review: Solid but unspectaculr righty continued steady climb up the ladder, pitching well enough at Triple-A to get a major league look.
The Good: Buckner gets strikeouts with his plus curveball, a big looper that he can throw for strikes or into the dirt. His 88-91 sinking fastball is also an effective pitch that he commands well to generate plenty of groundballs. His changeup is good enough to keep hitters honest. Squarely built and broad shouldered, Buckner has good stamina and has clean mechanics.
The Bad: Buckner needs to works more on his pitch sequences, as smart opposing hitters simply sit on his curveball when he stops setting it up with his heater. He’s a finished product who isn’t expected to get much better.
Fun Fact: Buckner will join Hochevar in the Triple-A rotation, w
정확한 소식통 님
Orioles Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Matt Wieters, C
Four-Star Prospects
2. Chorye Spoone, RHP
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
5. Nolan Reimold, OF
6. Billy Rowell, 3B
7. Brandon Erbe, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
8. Garrett Olson, LHP
9. Pedro Beato, RHP
10. David Hernandez, RHP
11. James Hoey, RHP
Just Missing: Bob McCrory, RHP; Scott Moore, 3B/1B; Brandon Snyder, 1B
1. Matt Wieters, C
DOB: 5/21/86
Height/Weight: 6-5/230
Bats/Throws: S/R
Draft: 1st round, 2007, Georgia Tech
2007 Stats: .358/.480/592 in 57 NCAA games
Year In Review: Wieters entered the year as the top-rated position player in college and finished there as well, despite a junior season that was slightly below expectations. His $6 million bonus set a record for an up-front payment, and while he signed too late to make pro debut, he’s currently wowing scouts with his play in the Hawaii Winter League.
The Good: Ranked by some as the best college catcher this decade. A big switch-hitter with the rare combination of contact skills and pole-to-pole plus power. Outstanding pitch recognition. Athletic behind the plate, he also has a plus arm (good enough that he also closed at Georgia Tech).
The Bad: Wieters’ arm strength is cut down a bit by a long release. Some believe that it will take some adjustments for his power to translate from aluminum to wood. If big catchers concern you, Wieters is not your guy, as he’s larger than Joe Mauer. He needs to work on his game-calling and working with a pitching staff, which can only be learned with pro experience.
Fun Fact: Wieters' father, Richard, was a fourth-round pick by the Braves in 1977 who pitched six years in the minor leagues.
Perfect World Projection: The rare backstop who hits in the middle of a batting order.
Timetable: Wieters' talent, combined with the pressure of being a $6 million man, put him on the fast track. The goal for 2008 is for Wieters to spend a significant portion of the season at Double-A in order to be lined up for a full-time job by the following season. He could move up even more quickly than that.
2. Chorye Spoone, RHP
DOB: 9/16/85
Height/Weight: 6-1/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 8th round, 2005, Catonsville CC (MD)
2007 Stats: 3.26 ERA at High-A (152-108-67-133)
Year In Review: A projectable right-hander began to meet that projection quickly by pitching well, improving throughout the year, and finishing the season with a pair of complete games in the postseason.
The Good: Already has four effective pitches and shows ability to both miss bats and rack up huge groundball totals. His four-seam fastball can touch 95 mph, and the two-seam offering features heavy, natural sink. Both his curveball and changeup are at least average, and flash as plus pitches at times.
The Bad: Spoone’s thick build isn’t ideal, but he’s not short, has fluid mechanics, and maintains his stuff deep into games. He needs to improve his command and control. He also needs to work on his mound composure, and can get rattled at times when bloopers fall in or errors are made behind him.
Fun Fact: It’s pronounced “Cory”; it’s just spelled weird.
Perfect World Projection: A solid third starter in a big league rotation.
Timetable: Spoone took a larger step forward than any player in the system last year, and now he’ll make the big step to Double-A in 2008. If he continues to progress at the pace he showed last year, he could be lined up for an Orioles rotation job in 2009.
3. Radhames Liz, RHP
DOB: 6/10/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2003, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 3.22 ERA at Double-A (137-101-70-161); 6.93 ERA at MLB (24.2-25-23-24)
Year In Review: Liz is a raw, power right-hander. He was effective but inconsistent at Double-A, perhaps best reflected by his throwing a no-hitter in June that was wrapped around by a pair of starts in which he gave up 10 runs in 11 innings. He spent final month in the big leagues, making four horrible starts (11.48 ERA), but looking much better in relief work.
The Good: Liz has the best fastball in the system, varying from 93-97 mph and featuring plenty of boring action. His curveball is a plus pitch at times, and he also throws a decent slider. He's very aggressive on the mound.
The Bad: Liz’ mechanics are anything but smooth, as there are a lot of moving parts to his delivery, and when they aren’t all synched (which is more often than not), his control can be downright awful. His changeup needs work, and some believe that he’d be better off focusing on just one breaking ball.
Fun Fact: In four big league starts, Liz gave up 20 hits in 13 1/3 innings; in six relief appearances, he surrendered just five in 11 1/3.
Perfect World Projection: A power pitcher, with a role to be determined.
Timetable: While Liz is a sturdy pitcher with good stamina, his mechanics and limited repertoire lead many to believe that his future is in the bullpen. He’ll remain a starter for now, because that’s where the value is, and begin 2008 by likely working on his shortcomings at Triple-A.
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
DOB: 3/6/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 5th round, 2007, Texas Christian
2007 Stats: 3.01 ERA at NCAA (98.2-90-50-93)
Year In Review: Arrieta entered the year as one of the better righties in the draft, but his stock fell after he failed to match a sophomore campaign in which he had a 2.35 ERA and limited batters to a .231 batting average. That downturn in production--combined with Scott Boras representation--dropped him to the fifth round, but Baltimore gave him late first-round money ($1.1 million) to sign.
The Good: He has a power pitcher’s frame with pretty good stuff--he pitches primarily off his fastball, which sits in the low 90s and comes in on a downward plane. It’s not a pure sinker, but batters have trouble getting lift off the pitch, as evidenced by just eight home runs surrendered in his final two years for the Horned Frogs. The slider is a solid offering with some depth.
The Bad: Arrieta needs to work more on his off-speed offerings, in particular his changeup. His command could also use improvement. Scouts who saw him pitch during his final year at college attributed his troubles to mechanical tinkering.
Fun Fact: This year was actually the third time that Arrieta had been drafted. The Reds took him in the 31st round in 2004 out of Plano High School, and the Brewers selected him one year later as a junior college player.
Perfect World Projection: A mid-rotation starting pitcher and an innings eater.
Timetable: Like Wieters, Arrieta signed too late to make his pro debut, but he’s been very impressive pitching against the advanced competition of the Arizona Fall League. He’ll likely reach Double-A at some point in 2008, if not begin the year there, and could move quickly.
5. Nolan Reimold, OF
DOB: 10/12/83
Height/Weight: 6-4/207
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 2nd round, 2005, Bowling Green
2007 Stats: .233/410/.433 at GCL (9 G); .306/.365/.565 at Double-A (50 G)
Year In Review: A pair of oblique injuries limited Reimold to less than half a season, but when he was healthy, he hit Double-A pitching hard, shaking off last year’s disappointing showing in the Carolina League.
The Good: Reimold’s above-average power and good on-base skills should make him a solid big league contributor. He crushes fastballs and destroys left-handed pitching (.818 SLG). Also has a good arm in the outfield.
The Bad: Some see Reimold as a mistake hitter who swings and misses too often at breaking pitches. He’s lost more than a step since getting drafted, and profiles as a corner man at this point. His route running is poor. Two straight years with health issues is a matter of concern.
Fun Fact: Reimold is the highest-drafted position player in Bowling Green history, and will need just 14 big league home runs to top Andy Tracy for the alumni mark.
Perfect World Projection: Average corner outfielder.
Timetable: At this point, health is as important as production to Reimold. He’ll begin 2008 in Triple-A, and will likely make the big leagues at some point if he can stay on the field.
6. Billy Rowell, 3B
DOB: 9/10/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, Bishop Eustace HS (NJ)
2007 Stats: .273/.335/.426 at Low-A (91 G)
Year In Review: Last year’s first-round pick saw his full-season debut delayed by an oblique strain, and he never really got going for Delmarva.
The Good: He's a monster-sized third baseman with tremendous power potential, and he shows advanced understanding of the strike zone. Rowell surprised many with his third base play, showing good fundamentals and a well above-average arm.
The Bad: Rowell’s size and lack of speed still has most predicting a slide over to first base when all is said and done. He’s prone to strikeouts, and pitchers were far too successful in getting him to chase pitches. He also looked absolutely lost against lefties at times, batting just .185 with one home run in 85 at-bats.
Fun Fact: Rowell committed just one error in June, and then was charged with 19 over the next two months.
Perfect World Projection: A low-average, high-power corner infielder, maybe in the mold of a less athletic Troy Glaus.
Timetable: While Rowell’s season was something of a disappointment, his tender age was a mitigating factor. He showed enough were he doesn’t need to repeat the level, and he’ll begin 2008 in the Carolina League in what is already lining up as a pivotal season in his young career.
7. Brandon Erbe, RHP
DOB: 12/25/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 3rd round, 2005, McDonogh HS (MD)
2007 Stats: 6.26 ERA at High-A (119.1-127-62-111)
Year In Review: Entering the year as the pride of the system, Erbe completely crashed and burned in the Carolina League, giving up six or more runs in eight of his final 18 outings.
The Good: On a stuff level, Erbe is still very much in the discussion as a top-flight arm. His four-seam fastball sits at 92-95 mph, and he can ramp it up to 97 when needed. His slider has late, hard bite, and his changeup has advanced to more than just a "show me" pitch.
The Bad: Erbe’s struggles were directly related to his command problems, and a change to his style of pitching. He seemingly stopped trusting his stuff, pitching backwards by starting with off-speed offerings, putting himself in hitters' counts, where they would then dial in on his fastball. He also mixes in a sinker and curve, and most feel he’d be better served at this point by just focusing on three pitches. If the changeup doesn’t continue to improve, he’ll likely end up as a reliever.
Fun Fact: One way to get a six-plus ERA: Leadoff hitters had a .424 on-base percentage against Erbe in 2007.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average starting pitcher, but the gap between what he is now and what he can be is significantly greater than it was a year ago.
Timetable: Always young for his level, Erbe can afford a hiccup in his ascension to the big leagues. He’ll likely repeat at High-A, and will still be only 20 years old during the entirety of the 2008 season.
8. Garrett Olson, LHP
DOB: 10/18/83
Height/Weight: 6-1/195
Bats/Throws: R/L
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Cal Poly-SLO
2007 Stats: 3.16 ERA at Triple-A (128-95-39-120); 7.79 ERA at MLB (32.1-42-28-28)
Year In Review: The top left-hander in the system was one of the International League’s top arms, but his big league debut was downright horrible, as hitters reached base against him at a .444 clip.
The Good: Olson has three solid pitches with an average (89-91 mph) fastball, power curve, and decent changeup. He throws strikes and mixes up his pitches well. He’s proven to be very durable since signing, staying healthy and pitching deep into games.
The Bad: Olson got too cute in the big leagues, trying to paint corners and fool hitters by changing speeds; he needs to bring his more aggressive minor league style to the majors in order to succeed. He lacks the one true plus-plus offering to be a star.
Fun Fact: At least he gets off to a good start--Olson didn’t allow a hit in the first inning in any of his seven big league starts.
Perfect World Projection: A back of the rotation left-hander.
Timetable: Despite his nightmarish big league debut, Olson will go into spring training with a solid shot at earning the job as fifth starter. He has nothing left to prove in the minors, but much to prove in Baltimore, and his spring training performance will be vital to his season as a whole.
9. Pedro Beato, RHP
DOB: 10/27/86
Height/Weight: 6-6/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, St. Petersburg College
2007 Stats: 4.05 ERA at Low-A (142.1-139-59-106)
Year In Review: The supplemental first-round pick from the previous summer had a middling full-season debut, pitching consistently well, but rarely blowing away scouts.
The Good: Beato’s fastball touched 94-95 mph at times, while sitting in the 90-92 range on most nights. Scouts generally prefer his slider over his curve at this point, as he throws it hard and it breaks strongly across the plate. Frame-wise, he’s almost ideal, and his mechanics are solid.
The Bad: Beato’s stuff was not nearly as good as advertised, as his fastball fell a solid two or three ticks below what he showed as an amateur. This velocity drop complicated Beato’s changeup issues, as the pitch already lacked a big velocity gap from his heat. Some attributed the problems to some weight gain, as a bigger model of Beato lacked the looseness in his arm from last year.
Fun Fact: While 33 pitchers have been drafted out of St. Petersburg junior college, not one has pitched a single big league inning.
Perfect World Projection: A number three big league starter, with an outside shot of becoming something more than that.
Timetable: Beato definitely took a step backwards in 2007, but with better conditioning he has the ability to snap back. His progress will continue in the High-A rotation at Frederick.
10. David Hernandez, RHP
DOB: 5/13/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/214
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 16th round, 2005, Cosumnes River College (CA)
2007 Stats: 4.95 ERA at High-A (145.1-139-47-168)
Year In Review: The impressive right-hander proved that last year’s equally impressive showing was no fluke, leading the organization in strikeouts and finishing the year on a very high note with an 18-strikeout performance in his final regular season start.
The Good: Hernandez is a true power arm with a low-90s fastball that can get into the 94-95 mph range at times, and a hard slider. He’s a big pitcher and a good athlete who has proven to be highly durable so far in his career. His changeup is at least average, giving him a solid three-pitch mix.
The Bad: Hernandez needs to find more consistency with his breaking pitches, as he’ll often drop down on his slider and turn it into a sweepy, ineffective pitch. Focus can be a problem with him at times, as he’s prone to big innings, as reflected in the disparity between his ERA and his peripheral numbers.
Fun Fact: Hernandez had eight starts in which he allowed five or more runs, and seven in which he allowed one or zero.
Perfect World Projection: A big league starting pitcher.
Timetable: Hernandez really could be just a few adjustments from taking off, but there is no guarantee that those adjustments will be made. The Orioles will have a much better feel for his long-term future once they see how he does in Double-A in 2008.
11. James Hoey, RHP
DOB: 12/30/82
Height/Weight: 6-6/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 13th round, 2003, Rider
2007 Stats: 0.00 ERA at Double-A (18.2-13-4-28); 1.33 ERA at Triple-A (27-15-10-41); 7.30 ERA at MLB (24.2-25-18-18)
Year In Review: The Tommy John survivor began season with 20 straight scoreless appearances in the Eastern League, and was nearly as impressive after moving up to Triple-A. He spent the final six weeks of the year pitching out of the Oriole bullpen, where he struggled mightily.
The Good: Some argue that he, not Liz, has the best fastball in the system; Hoey's sits at 94-97 mph, and has touched triple-digits on numerous occasions. The pitch is made all the better by Hoey’s tall frame and long arms, which provide a difficult angle to opposing hitters. He goes after hitters and mixes in a decent slider.
The Bad: Hoey’s fastball doesn’t have a lot of movement on it, nor does he command it especially well. His slider is good at times, but also inconsistent, leaving Hoey at times as a one-pitch pitcher, which led to his getting hammered in the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Left-handers facing Hoey in the minors this year went 11-for-83 (.133) with 33 whiffs.
Perfect World Projection: A late-inning reliever, with some possibility of growing into the closer role.
Timetable: The Orioles enter 2008 without a closer, and while Hoey has the stuff to compete for the job, he’ll need to show that he can throw strikes in the spring before given the opportunity. In any case, he should spend 2008 in the Baltimore bullpen
The Sleeper: An obscure 16th-round pick this June, third baseman Tyler Kolodny hit .318/.406/.530 in his pro debut for Baltimore’s Gulf Coast League squad, and while his athletic ability doesn’t impress anyone, scouts are true believers in his bat.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2007)
1. Nick Markakis, OF
2. Matt Wieters, C
3. Chorye Spoone, RHP
4. Radhames Liz, RHP
5. Adam Loewen, LHP
6. Jake Arrieta, RHP
7. Nolan Reimold, OF
8. Billy Rowell, 3B
9. Brandon Erbe, RHP
10. Garrett Olson, LHP
Markakis’ game took a step forward in nearly every respect last year, and at 24, there’s more to come; 2008 could be the year when he goes from exciting young player to the face of the franchise. Despite his struggles on the mound and in the trainer’s room, Loewen is just 23 years old, and talent evaluators still have faith in him, as his combination of size and stuff is exceedingly difficult to find in southpaws.
The Orioles system is on a bit of an upswing as they nabbed a pair of big prizes in the 2007 draft. One negative was the number of big-league ready arms who flopped when they actually reached the big leagues. The good news is that there are more pitchers coming up behind them, the bad news is that Wieters is the only sure-fire position prospect in the system. Rowell has plenty of time to rebound, but after that, the hitting class is quite thin.
Red Sox Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Clay Buchholz, RHP
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
Four-Star Prospects
3. Justin Masterson, RHP
4. Jed Lowrie, SS
5. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
6. Michael Bowden, RHP
7. Lars Anderson, 1B
8. Nick Hagadone, LHP
9. Oscar Tejeda, SS
Two-Star Prospects
10. Josh Reddick, OF
11. Che-Hsuan Lin, OF
Just Missing: Ryan Dent, SS; Kris Johnson, LHP; Will Middlebrooks, 3B
1. Clay Buchholz, RHP
DOB: 8/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Angelina College (TX)
2007 Stats: 1.77 ERA at Double-A (86.2-55-22-116); 3.96 ERA at Triple-A (38.2-32-13-55); 1.59 ERA at MLB (22.2-14-10-22)
Year In Review: After finishing the previous year on such a strong note, the Red Sox surprised some by starting Buchholz off at Double-A this season, but he blew away hitters at two levels before throwing a no-hitter in his second big league start, and establishing himself as the top pitching prospect in the game.
The Good: Buchholz is the total package with outstanding stuff, outstanding command and control, and outstanding mound presence. His four-seam fastball sits at 92-94 mph, can touch 97, and features excellent movement. It also isn’t even his best pitch. His plus-plus curveball is a true 12-6 breaker, and multiple scouts relay stories of batters falling down while trying to hit it. His changeup is also an above-average offering that features a late and heavy drop. He also mixes in a solid slider, and a two-seam fastball with some sink. His mechanics are smooth and sound, and he pitches with a fearless intensity.
The Bad: Anything here is nitpicking. At times, Buchholz becomes a bit too enamored with his secondary offerings, and needs to focus more on setting everything up with his fastball. Some felt this was solved at the big league level when Jason Varitek called all the pitches. Buchholz was shut down at the end of the season due to minor arm soreness, but it was done purely on a precautionary basis, and there are no long-term concerns.
Fun Fact: While at Angelina college, Buchholz was also the best hitter on the team, and would still have been drafted in the first ten rounds as an outfielder if he'd never pitched.
Perfect World Projection: Buchholz is one of the few pitching prospects around with true ace potential.
Timetable: Buchholz’ ascent is the primary reason Curt Schilling has been spending time writing good-bye letters to his Boston teammates. Buchholz is penciled in for an Opening Day rotation slot, and could be an impact pitcher immediately.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
DOB: 9/11/83
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Oregon State
2007 Stats: .452/.518/.644 at Double-A (17 G); .298/.360/.380 at Triple-A (87 G); .353/.394/.509 at MLB (33 G)
Year In Review: After successful full-season debut, Ellsbury was the hottest hitter in the minors during the first three weeks of the season, and overtook Coco Crisp for the starting job in center during the postseason.
The Good: Ellsbury’s top tools are his speed and glovework, but he’s a very good hitter as well. He makes good contact, uses all fields, and projects as a consistent .290-.310 hitter annually in the big leagues. He’s a plus-plus runner with outstanding instincts on the basepaths; one scout called him the best base runner he saw all year. He gets excellent jumps on balls in the outfield, and covers a ton of ground to both sides.
The Bad: Ellsbury needs to develop better secondary skills to move into the elite category as a hitter. He doesn’t have much power, though most feel he’ll grow enough to be good for 10-15 home runs annually. His excellent plate coverage works against him at times, and he needs to be more patient to profile as a pure leadoff man.
Fun Fact: While Oregon State is coming off back-to-back College World Series titles, success on the diamond is new to them, as their most successful hitting alum in the big leagues is Steve Lyons; Ellsbury’s three home runs in the majors already ranks second.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average big league center fielder and occasional All-Star.
Timetable: Ellsbury’s performance in the postseason cemented his place in the Red Sox outfield of the future. That future starts in 2008, and Ellsbury will be the starting center fielder.
3. Justin Masterson, RHP
DOB: 3/22/85
Height/Weight: 6-6/250
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 2nd round, 2006, San Diego State
2007 Stats: 4.33 ERA at High-A (95.2-103-22-56); 4.34 ERA at Double-A (58-49-18-59)
Year In Review: The big right-hander held his own in Lancaster, then took off once he arrived in the most realistic baseball environs of the Eastern League, allowing five earned runs over 33 2/3 IP in his first five starts for Portland.
The Good: Masterson’s sinker is not only the best in the system, it’s arguably the best in all of the minor leagues. The pitch comes out of his hand at 88-92 mph, touches 94, and features tremendous downward break. Making the pitch even more effective is his ability to locate it in any four quadrants of the zone. He has an intimidating presence on the mound, and his drop-and-drive style gives him some deception.
The Bad: Masterson’s three-quarters delivery is a bit of a concern, as his causes him to often get around on his slider, taking away any depth from the pitch. He made some progress this year with a circle grip on his changeup, but it remains a below-average pitch. Because of these concerns with his arsenal, some project him to be a reliever down the road.
Fun Fact: Masterson was born in Jamaica while his father was serving as the Dean of Students at Jamaica Theological Seminary.
Perfect World Projection: Pitchers like Chien-Ming Wang, Fausto Carmona and Derek Lowe have proven that sinkerballers can have great success in starting roles. While Masterson is in that mold, he’s a notch below them.
Timetable: Masterson’s development has come along a bit more quickly than expected, and he’ll likely begin 2008 at Triple-A Pawtucket. His long-term role with the Red Sox is still undefined, but he could get a big league look by the end of the season.
4. Jed Lowrie, SS
DOB: 4/17/84
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: S/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Stanford
2007 Stats: .297/.410/.501 at Double-A (93 G); .300/.356/.506 at Triple-A (40 G)
Year In Review: After a disappointing full-season debut, Lowrie had what can only be defined as a breakout campaign, putting up great numbers at both Double- and Triple-A.
The Good: Lowrie is an on-base machine. His approach is highly advanced, as he works the count well, and recognizes which pitches he can drive into the gap. His makeup is off the charts--he’s a baseball grinder who plays and practices with an infectious all-out style. Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound and features a solid, accurate arm.
The Bad: Scouts’ opinions of Lowrie vary wildly, with some seeing him as an everyday big league shortstop, and others seeing him as no more than a very good utility player. There is little doubt that with Lowrie’s average speed and slow first step that his range is a little short to play on the left side of an infield in the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Lowrie is just one of 21 first-round picks to come out of the Stanford baseball program.
Perfect World Projection: A starting shortstop, though second base is more likely.
Timetable: With Julio Lugo still under contract and Dustin Pedroia establishing himself as one of the better second basemen around, Lowrie has no obvious job with the Red Sox. He’ll return to Triple-A in 2008, and probably won’t achieve a full-time role in the majors until he or Lugo gets moved elsewhere.
5. Ryan Kalish, OF
DOB: 3/28/88
Height/Weight: 6-1/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 9th round, 2006, Red Bank Catholic HS (NJ)
2007 Stats: .368/.471/.540 at Short-season (23 G)
Year In Review: After earning a $600,000 bonus that bought him away from a college commitment to Virginia, the Red Sox spent extended spring training smoothing out Kalish’s swing mechanics and refining his approach before unleashing him on the New York-Penn League, where he dominated for a month before his season was ended by a wrist injury.
The Good: Kalish is a premier athlete, and none of his tools grade out below average. He’s an excellent hitter with at least average power, and profiles as a leadoff man with some pop, walking more than he struck out during his brief season. He has above-average speed and is an excellent baserunner.
The Bad: Kalish is still raw, especially in the field. He needs to improve his reads and routes to stay in center field, and his offensive profile creates a mismatch if he moves to a corner. He struggles against good lefties, who showed an ability to fool him with breaking stuff. His biggest issue right now might just be a lack of experience.
Fun Fact: In his final 13 games before the wrist injury, Kalish went 23-for-49 (.469) with eight walks and nine stolen bases.
Perfect World Projection: A dynamic outfielder capable of 20 home run/40 stolen base campaigns.
Timetable: Initially thought to require surgery, a second diagnosis prescribed a rest and rehabilitation program for Kalish, who is expected to be 100% by spring training. To call his full-season debut highly anticipated would understate the case.
6. Michael Bowden, RHP
DOB: 9/9/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Waubonsie Valley HS (IL)
2007 Stats: 1.37 ERA at High-A (46-35-8-46); 4.28 ERA at Double-A (96.2-105-33-82)
Year In Review: Entering the year as one of the top arms in the system, Bowden gained some early attention by being the only pitcher who could succeed at Lancaster, but his showing at Double-A wasn’t nearly as impressive.
The Good: While Bowden has the command of a control specialist, his stuff is far from pedestrian. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and his curveball is a plus offering. He thrives on competition, and seems to find an extra gear in tight situations. While his numbers at Double-A weren’t overly impressive, he was among the youngest pitchers in the league at the time of his promotion.
The Bad: The biggest knock scouts have with Bowden is his funky mechanics. A term normally reserved for batters, Bowden’s delivery almost has a hitch in it and comes in a lot of parts, so it’s easy for him to get out of synch, costing him velocity, command, and movement. His changeup still needs work to become a usable big league pitch.
Fun Fact: In three California League starts away from Lancaster’s high-octane home stadium, Bowden fired 18 2/3 shutout innings.
Perfect World Projection: A third or fourth starter in the major leagues.
Timetable: The Red Sox were happy to get Bowden out of the California League, but that have no need to rush him. He’ll likely spend all of 2008 back at Double-A unless he can rediscover last April's magic.
7. Lars Anderson, 1B
DOB: 9/25/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 18th round, 2006, Jesuit HS (CA)
2007 Stats: .288/.385/.443 at Low-A (124 G); .343/.489/.486 at High-A (10 G)
Year In Review: Another late-round pick who received big money ($825,000), Anderson’s pro debut met expectations, as he hit over .300 in every month of the season except for July, where a .194/.326/.306 line brought his season totals down.
The Good: Anderson’s power potential is unmatched in the Boston system, but he’s hardly one-dimensional. He’s already showed excellent pitch recognition, and the ability to hit for an average, with a swing that scouts point to when asked about the prettiest around.
The Bad: Anderson’s power still plays more in batting practice than in games, and he still needs to learn how to pull pitches with authority. Despite the accolades for his swing, Anderson still strikes out quite a bit. While decent defensively, he’s limited to first base, meaning his bat will have to carry him to the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Anderson’s high school in Sacramento is an exclusive school that costs more than $10,000 per year for students, and features arguably the top high school rugby program in the nation.
Perfect World Projection: A star first baseman who hits for average, hits for power, and draws walks in droves.
Timetable: Add Anderson’s skill set and an assignment to Low-A Lancaster, and that could equal some ridiculous numbers. On a scouting level, some hope that the homer-happy park could help Anderson in developing some habits that allow him to tap into his natural power.
8. Nick Hagadone, LHP
DOB: 1/1/86
Height/Weight: 6-5/230
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2007, University of Washington
2007 Stats: 1.85 ERA at Short-season (24.1-14-8-33)
Year In Review: Entering the year as an obscure middle reliever, everything about Hagadone’s game took a major step forward, as he stepped into the closer role after initially being pegged as a weekend starter. He allowed five runs in just one inning in his pro debut, but then finished the year with 23 consecutive scoreless innings stretched over nine appearances while giving up just eight hits and striking out 32.
The Good: As a six-foot-five lefty who can get into the mid-90s, Hagadone has a very high ceiling. His fastball generally sat in the 91-94 mph range, and he commands it well. His power slider is often a swing-and-miss pitch, and scouts were surprised by how effective his changeup is, which features good arm action and a late drop.
The Bad: Hagadone’s mechanics have come into question at times, as he short-arms the ball and doesn’t get much leg drive on his pitches. While he has the three-pitch mix to start, and will be developed as a starter, he’s yet to prove that his stuff can hold up over the course of a game, or that his arm can hold up over a 150+ inning workload. Both of his secondary offerings could use refinement, as he often overthrows the slider, costing it break.
Fun Fact: Hagadone comes from good athletic bloodlines, as his father played football at Idaho, and his mother starred in volleyball at Montana State.
Perfect World Projection: Hagadone could develop into a big-time starting pitcher, with a future as a power reliever representing a solid backup plan.
Timetable: While Hagadone might be ready for High-A, an assignment to Lancaster might not be the best idea for a full-season debut, so he’ll likely begin the year in the rotation at Low-A Greenville. He could move quickly as a reliever, but has more value as a starter, which will take more time.
9. Oscar Tejeda, SS
DOB: 12/12/89
Height/Weight: 6-1/177
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2006, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: .295/.344/.399 at Rookie-level (45 G); .298/.347/.394 at Short-season (22 G)
Year In Review: One of the top international players from last summer, Tejeda impressed in the Gulf Coast League and more than held his own after a promotion to Lowell, where he was the youngest player in team history.
The Good: Tejeda has all of the tools necessary to be a star-level shortstop. He’s a good hitter with a line-drive stroke who has the frame and the bat speed to develop into some power. Defensively, he has excellent range, crisp actions and a strong arm.
The Bad: Not even 18 yet, Tejeda is still rough around the edges in many aspects. He still hasn’t seen enough breaking balls to make the proper adjustments to them, and he needs to improve in the little parts of the game, like bunting and baserunning. Like many young, flashy shortstops, he’s prone to errors when trying to make spectacular plays.
Fun Fact: During his short stint at Lowell, Tejeda had nine-multi-hit games and an equal number of hitless efforts, but just three contests in which he recorded just one safety.
Perfect World Projection: A starting shortstop with the ability to create runs at the plate, and prevent them in the field.
Timetable: Tejeda’s youth and inexperience leaves him very far from his potential. While it seems like he’s ready for a full-season assignment, he’ll be only 18 for all of 2008, and there might be a need for patience.
10. Josh Reddick, OF
DOB: 2/19/87
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 17th round, 2006, Middle Georgia College
2007 Stats: .306/.352/.531 at Low-A (94 G); .000/.000/.000 at Double-A (1 G)
Year In Review: The Georgia Junior College Player of the Year in 2006, Reddick got sixth-round money ($140,000) to sign, and began the year in extended spring training, and would have made a run onto several Sally League leader boards if he played the entire season.
The Good: Reddick is an impressive hitter, with the hand-eye coordination, bat speed, and raw strength to succeed at every level. He’s a good athlete and has speed a tick above average, and he has a strong, accurate arm.
The Bad: Reddick needs to cut down on the aggressiveness in his approach, as more advanced pitchers will have an easier time getting ahead of him in the count. While he played both center and right field in 2007, his defensive skills are far better suited to right.
Fun Fact: Reddick often got off to a quick start in games, batting .371 (46-for-124) with ten home runs in the first three innings.
Perfect World Projection: An impressive corner outfielder.
Timetable: Reddick’s performance was one of the bigger surprises in the system last year, and like Anderson, he could put up some big numbers in Lancaster. Unfortunately, because of that we probably won’t have a better feel for Reddick’s potential until he reaches Double-A.
11. Che-Hsuan Lin, OF
DOB: 9/21/88
Height/Weight: 6-0/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2007, Taiwan
2007 Stats: .263/.330/.457 at Rookie-level (43 G); .163/.265/.209 at Short-season (11 G)
Year In Review: The best player in Taiwan this year, Lin was courted by many teams all spring long, before finally signing for $400,000 in June. Within two weeks he made his pro debut with Boston’s GCL squad, where he impressed observers with his tools.
The Good: Lin is a fantastic athlete, with one of the better arms in the system and the kind of speed to steal 40 bases annually. He has a quick bat and surprising pop for his size thanks to strong wrists that whip the bat through the zone. The Red Sox love his makeup, and he’s dedicated to his game and takes well to instruction.
The Bad: Lin’s slight frame hinders his projection, especially with his power. He has to work on his pitch recognition, as he likes to jump on fastballs, and is always looking dead-red, leaving him susceptible to off-speed pitches. He has the speed to play center field, but needs to improve his jumps and reads to stay there.
Fun Fact: Lin played his high school ball at Nan-Ying Vacational, the Taiwanese baseball powerhouse that had produced numerous prospects, including Chin-Lung Hu and Hong-Chih Kuo of the Dodgers.
Perfect World Projection: A dynamic, athletic center fielder with star potential. That said, Lin is very, very far from reaching that.
Timetable: The Red Sox will likely take it slow with Lin, who still needs to acclimate to living in the United States, as well as our style of baseball. Spring training will dictate if he begins the year in extended spring or Low-A Greenville.
The Sleeper: Long and lanky 21-year-old Dominican southpaw Jose Capellan was Lowell’s most consistent starter this year, finishing with a 3.69 ERA and an impressive 71-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 75 2/3 innings. Capellan’s fastball is average at best, but his breaking ball and changeup are both above-average, as is his command.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Clay Buchholz, RHP
2. Jon Lester, LHP
3. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
4. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
5. Justin Masterson, RHP
6. Jed Lowrie, SS
7. Ryan Kalish, OF
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Nick Hagadone, LHP
Lester’s battle with cancer overshadowed the fact that before his health problems, he was easily one of the top left-handed prospects in baseball. By the end of 2007, and including his start in Game Four of the World Series, Lester’s stuff seems to be all the way back. By adding both Lester and Buchholz, the Red Sox rotation will be even better in 2008 than it was for this year’s title season. The great irony to Pedroia’s season is that he outperformed the scouting projections, but lived up to PECOTA’s love for him, but his performance by many is attributed to many to his outstanding makeup--a scouting term that some in the statistical community abhor.
Thanks to a willingness to open the checkbook come draft time, the Boston system is better than ever. If there is one issue here, it’s with the distribution of talent, because after Buchholz and Ellsbury, there’s little that is immediately ready to help. At the same time, how much of an issue is that when your team just won the World Series?
White Sox Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Fautino de los Santos, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
3. Aaron Poreda, LHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Chris Carter, 1B
5. John Shelby, CF
6. Jose Martinez, OF
Two-Star Prospects
7. Jack Egbert, RHP
8. Ryan Sweeney, OF
9. Lance Broadway, RHP
One-Star Prospects
10. Brian Omogrosso, RHP
11. Kyle McCulloch, RHP
Just Missing: John Ely, RHP; Christian Marrero, 1B; Jerry Owens, OF
1. Fautino de los Santos, RHP
DOB: 2/15/86
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2005, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 2.40 ERA at Low-A (97.2-49-36-121); 3.65 ERA at High-A (24.2-20-7-32)
Year In Review: Beginning the year as an obscure Dominican arm in a weak system, de los Santos first blew away the coaching staff in spring training and then was almost literally unhittable in the Sally League, allowing one hit for every two innings pitched.
The Good: Built like a tree trunk, de los Santos gets tremendous drive. His fastball sits at 91-95 mph, touching 98 at times; it also has late movement, and he commands it very well. His breaking pitch is a power curve with hard late bite, and it's a true out pitch when he’s on. He understands the importance of developing an offspeed pitch, and he improved his changeup over the course of the year.
The Bad: De los Santos gets into bad habits at times, and can overthrow all of his pitches, costing him life on his fastball, break on his curve, and decreasing the velocity gap between the heat and his changeup. Some worry that his aggressiveness might work against him when facing more advanced hitters, and that he needs to learn how to set up batters and be more aware of the count, as opposed to challenging hitters with every pitch. If his changeup doesn’t continue to improve, some fear he’ll be limited to a relief role.
Fun Fact: In 18 fifth innings, de los Santos allowed just three hits while striking out 26.
Perfect World Projection: Star-level starter or closer.
Timetable: De los Santos has the highest ceiling of any player in the system, but he’s still at least two years away. He’ll likely begin 2008 at High-A, with an expectation than he could be ready for a look at some point in 2009.
2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
DOB: 9/19/85
Height/Weight: 5-11/185
Bats/Throws: R/L
Draft: 1st round, 2004, Monsignor Pace HS (FL)
2007 Stats: 3.18 ERA at Double-A (150-116-57-185)
Year In Review: After a one-year sojourn in Philadelphia, Gonzalez returned to the team that drafted him but then dealt in the Freddy Garcia trade. He pitched much better in his second Double-A season, leading the minor leagues in strikeouts.
The Good: Gonzalez has average velocity (89-91 mph) on his fastball, but he can reach back and touch 93 at times, and it features natural lefty movement, almost looking more like a cutter on occasion. He uses it effectively to get ahead in the count and set up his curveball, which is among the best in the minors. It’s a hard-breaking power pitch that comes in fast, then falls off the table. His changeup is improving, and his control made significant strides from the previous season.
The Bad: Gonzalez’ smallish frame is a concern for some, but he’s proven to be highly durable so far in his career. Some wonder if he’ll need to pitch backwards more in the majors, and worry that he depends too much on the curve at times. Despite the improvements, his control problems still flare up from time to time.
Fun Fact: Monsignor Pace’s most famous alum is actress Catherine Keener, although political commentator Bill O’Reilly taught history at the school for a brief time in the early 1970s.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average left-handed starter.
Timetable: Gonzalez will begin the year at Triple-A, and should see the big leagues at some point in 2008.
3. Aaron Poreda, LHP
DOB: 10/1/86
Height/Weight: 6-6/240
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 1st round, 2007, University of San Francisco
2007 Stats: 1.17 ERA at Rookie-level (46.1-29-10-48)
Year In Review: After being mandated by upper management to take a power arm, the White Sox found the hardest-throwing lefty in the draft. Poreda completely overmatched Pioneer League hitters, although he had more experience than most players in the league.
The Good: Poreda provides an intimidating presence on the mound, and fires a 92-95 mph fastball that touches 98-99 on occasion. His slider flashes as a plus pitch at times. He maintains his stuff deep into games, and is a good athlete for his size.
The Bad: Because of his low arm slot, Poreda isn’t able to take advantage of his size in the same manner as most big power pitchers. His slider is highly inconsistent-–at times, it's an above-average offering, and at other times sweepy and very hittable. His changeup is rudimentary, but he’s shown some feel for it since focusing on the pitch as a pro.
Fun Fact: During his brief debut, batters with runners in scoring position went 0-for-17 against Poreda.
Perfect World Projection: Poreda is clearly a big-time power pitcher, but scouts are split as to whether his future is as a starter or as a bullpen ace.
Timetable: Poreda’s early-career dominance likely has the organization comfortable will him skipping Low-A and making his full-season debut in the Carolina League. He’ll remain a starter for now, but a move to the bullpen could accelerate his advancement through the system.
4. Chris Carter, 1B
DOB: 12/18/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 15th round, 2005, Sierra Vista HS (NV)
2007 Stats: .291/.383/.522 at Low-A (126 G)
Year In Review: The hulking first baseman proved that last year’s Pioneer League breakout was anything but a fluke by finishing third in the South Atlantic League with 25 home runs.
The Good: A true slugger with tremendous strength and power to all fields, Carter has made great strides in his approach, drawing a good number of walks while greatly reducing his strikeout rate from a year ago. He hits lefties and righties equally well, and has no significant weaknesses against any pitch type.
The Bad: Originally a third baseman, Carter is a poor defender, even at first, and needs to improve his positioning and footwork. He can be guilty at times of trying too hard to muscle up his swing when his natural strength is more than adequate. He’s a below-average runner in terms of both speed and instincts.
Fun Fact: Wikipedia has entries for seven Chris Carters, none of whom are this Chris Carter.
Perfect World Projection: Your classic first baseman, a middle-of-the-order run producer.
Timetable: The White Sox see Carter as a one-level-at-a-time prospect, and he’ll follow that course with an assignment to High-A in 2008.
5. John Shelby, CF
DOB: 8/6/85
Height/Weight: 5-10/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 5th round, 2006, University of Kentucky
2007 Stats: .301/.352/.508 at Low-A (122 G)
Year In Review: Starting the year as a second baseman, Shelby got off to an average start, but exploded in the second half when he moved to center field, the position his father played. Shelby hit .361 in the final month of the season, with 10 of his 16 home runs on the year coming in his last 28 games.
The Good: Shelby has impressive tools, as his quick bat and strong wrists provide above-average power, and he makes consistent hard contact. He’s a slightly above-average runner as well, and he had surprisingly few difficulties moving to center field. He’s a hard-working diamond rat who plays with a lot of energy and has an excellent feel for the game.
The Bad: Shelby isn’t especially big or physical, which limits his projection. He still needs to work on his jumps in the outfield, and his arm is average at best. He needs to refine his approach at the plate and work the count more effectively.
Fun Fact: The oldest of six kids, Shelby’s younger brother Jeremy survived Hodgkin’s disease in high school to become a 46th-round pick by the Padres in 2005. Jeremy then hit over .300 this year at Columbia State.
Perfect World Projection: A 20/20 outfielder, one with much more value if he can stay in center.
Timetable: As a college product, Shelby was a bit older than many of his Sally League brethren, but his late-season performance provided cause for optimism. The White Sox will likely pair him up with Carter once again, but he could move up quickly to Double-A if he continues his torrid pace from the end of this past season.
6. Jose Martinez, OF
DOB: 7/25/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/170
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2006, Venezuela
2007 Stats: .282/.348/.437 at Rookie-level (65 G)
Year In Review: The Venezuelan outfielder made his state-side debut in the Appy League and showed off one of the more impressive packages of tools in the circuit.
The Good: Martinez offers plenty to dream on. Tall, skinny, and long-limbed, one scout compared Martinez physically to a right-handed Darryl Strawberry. He has good strength and is capable of moon shots when he gets his arms fully extended. He’s an above-average runner with a gliding stride, and a solid outfielder with an above-average arm.
The Bad: There are still a lot of rough edges to Martinez’s game. While he works the count well, he’s still prone to flailing at breaking pitches, and left-handers in particular give him trouble. He’s overly pull-happy at times, and needs to use all fields better, especially with pitches on the outer half of the plate. His outfield play can get sloppy at times, and he needs to improve on his decision-making defensively.
Fun Fact: When hitting third in the Bristol lineup, Martinez hit .338/.389/.592 in 142 at-bats. Anywhere else, he hit just .204/.291/.223 in 103 at-bats.
Perfect World Projection: Martinez has true star potential.
Timetable: While arguably possessing a higher ceiling than any other position player in the system, Martinez is still very much a diamond in the rough. He’ll make his full-season debut at Low-A, and is at least three years away from a sniff of the majors.
7. Jack Egbert, RHP
DOB: 5/12/83
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: L/R
Draft: 13th round, 2004, Rutgers
2007 Stats: 3.06 ERA at Double-A (161.2-138-44-165)
Year In Review: After putting up solid numbers at the A-ball level, Egbert surprised many by not only maintaining but improving upon his previous numbers in a full season at Double-A.
The Good: Egbert does two things exceedingly well--throw strikes and keep the ball on the ground. His upper-80s sinker is hard to get lift on, as he gave up just three home runs all year, and he can give batters a different look with a four-seamer than gets up to 91-92 mph. His changeup is a true plus pitch with excellent deception and late fade.
The Bad: Egbert’s curveball grades out as average by the more optimistic scouting reports, and some question just how far he can go without plus velocity or an above-average breaking ball; they wonder what he can depend on as a go-to pitch at the major league level.
Fun Fact: Egbert made 14 starts at home, and 14 on the road in 2007. He had a 6-4 record in both situations, recording 84 strikeouts against 22 walks at home, and 81 against 22 on the road. Despite all that balance, he had a 1.94 ERA at Birmingham, and a 4.25 mark away from his home park's friendly confines.
Perfect World Projection: A solid, dependable back-of-the-rotation starter.
Timetable: While Egbert doesn’t offer much in the way of upside, there isn’t much risk in him either. He’ll begin the year as part of a solid Triple-A rotation, and could be among the first called up should the need arise.
8. Ryan Sweeney, OF
DOB: 2/20/85
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Draft: 2nd round, 2003, Xavier HS (IA)
2007 Stats: .270/.348/.398 at Triple-A (105 G); .200/.268/.333 at MLB (15 G)
Year In Review: The former first-round pick spent his second year at Triple-A and went backwards. Many believe it’s time to stop talking about projection with him.
The Good: Sweeney is big, athletic, and not without some offensive skills. He has a quick, short stroke, gap power, and a nice feel for contact. He works the count well and doesn’t strikeout often. He’s an average runner who can play center field in a pinch, and his arm is among the best in the system.
The Bad: Always projected to develop power, Sweeney is now stuck as a tweener–-without true center field skills or the power to play everyday in a corner. He’s always struggled against good lefties, and failed to make adjustments in 2007 to address the problem. He played with little energy down the stretch, and did not get a September callup.
Fun Fact: While at Triple-A Charlotte, Sweeney hit .314 while playing center field, but just .234 when penciled into one of the outfield corners.
Perfect World Projection: At this point, it’s hard to see Sweeney as more than a fourth outfielder and occasional starter, though he still has some believers among scouts.
Timetable: While Sweeney has clearly stagnated, it’s hard to see him avoiding a third year at Triple-A without a monster spring training. This next year is absolutely pivotal for him.
9. Lance Broadway, RHP
DOB: 8/20/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2005, Texas Christian University
2007 Stats: 4.65 ERA at Triple-A (155-155-78-108); 0.97 ERA at MLB (10.1-5-5-14)
Year In Review: Yet another polished college arm in the system, Broadway was downright mediocre at Triple-A, but shined in a brief big league showing.
The Good: Broadway is sturdily built, and gets praise for his composure and pitchability. His curveball is a slow breaker that he likes to bury in the dirt, and his changeup features excellent arm action.
The Bad: Broadway is forced to pitch backwards, as his fastball generally sits in the 85-89 mph range. His overall package is kind of a mismatch in many ways, as he has the arsenal of a command/control specialist, yet his walk rate is unacceptable, even for a power arm.
Fun Fact: Despite having over 40 pitchers drafted by big league teams, Broadway is already tied for third among Texas Christian alumni with one big league win; former Oakland reliever John Briscoe is the all-time leader with five.
Perfect World Projection: An innings-eating fringe starter and/or long reliever.
Timetable: Broadway’s late-season performance opened some eyes with the big league staff, and he’ll be given every opportunity to earn an Opening Day roster slot during spring training-–most likely in the bullpen.
10. Brian Omogrosso, RHP
DOB: 4/26/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/230
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 6th round, 2006, Indiana State
2007 Stats: 3.74 ERA at High-A (120.1-94-57-108)
Year In Review: The Tommy John survivor began his full-season debut in High-A as a closer, but finished it in the rotation, putting up a 3.39 ERA in 14 starts and delivering quality starts in four of his last five outings.
The Good: Unlike many side-armers, Omogrosso doesn’t use the unique delivery to mask substandard stuff. It’s his naturally developed motion, and he can get his fastball into the low 90s, touching 93-94 mph. He throws both a two- and four-seam fastball from the side, and also mixes in a solid slider and surprisingly effective changeup.
The Bad: Like most side-armers, Omogrosso has problems against hitters from the opposite side, and lefties slugged 70 points higher against him than right-handers. He needs to throw more strikes and find more confidence in his secondary pitches, which he seems hesitant to throw late in at-bats.
Fun Fact: If he gets to the big leagues, Omogrosso will be the first player in major league history with O-M as the first two letters of his last name, not counting those with apostrophes.
Perfect World Projection: While he impressed as a starter, it’s hard to see him remaining in the role, but as a power side-armer, the White Sox are dreaming that he could be the next Pat Neshek.
Timetable: Omogrosso’s starting job was based more on need than a change in direction, but it looks like he’ll stay there for now and pitch every five days at Double-A this year. If he moves back to a relief role, he could be in the majors by the end of the year.
11. Kyle McCulloch, RHP
DOB: 3/20/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Draft: 1st round, 2006, University of Texas
2007 Stats: 3.64 ERA at High-A (121-116-42-88); 6.41 ERA at Double-A (26.2-38-11-16)
Year In Review: Last year's first-round pick was solid but unspectacular at High-A in his full-season debut, but finished the year by getting hammered in six Double-A starts.
The Good: McCulloch’s best pitch is a plus changeup, and he sets the pitch up with a well-commanded 87-90 mph fastball and decent curve. He throws strikes, and has an advanced feel for pitching. He’s shown excellent stamina, and his mechanics are clean-–as is his health record.
The Bad: Scouts see little projection in McCulloch, and wonder if his stuff is good enough for a big league starter and to justify his first-round selection. He became too reliant on the changeup at Double-A, and needs to get back to setting up the pitch, as opposed to relying on it.
Fun Fact: McCulloch was a 12th-round pick in 2003 out of Bellaire High School in Houston, a seven-time state champion in baseball that also produced Arizona star Chris Young and former All-Star Chuck Knoblauch.
Perfect World Projection: A fifth starter who rarely goes more than six solid innings, but usually keeps you in the game.
Timetable: McCulloch will begin 2008 by getting a second chance at Double-A, though his rotation job might be in a small amount of jeopardy. The back-to-back first-round selections of Broadway and McCulloch are the reasons why the organization overhauled its scouting staff and is now focusing on guys with arm strength.
The Sleeper: Seventh-round pick James Gallagher is the highest-drafted player since the Nationals' Larry Broadway to come out of Duke, which is better known for developing pro basketball players. After hitting .332/.418/.534 in the Pioneer League, Gallagher was one of the team’s most impressive performers during the instructional league.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Fautino de los Santos, RHP
2. Gio Gonzalez, LHP
3. John Danks, LHP
3. Aaron Poreda, RHP
4. Chris Carter, 1B
5. John Shelby
6. Jose Martinez, oF
7. Danny Richar, 2B
8. Jack Egbert, RHP
9. Ryan Sweeney, OF
10. Boone Logan, LHP
Danks put together some impressive starts during the first half of the season, but he regressed throughout the year, and by the second half was a liability, posting a 7.11 ERA in his final 10 starts. He’s still young with good stuff, but his performances have rarely matched his scouting reports. When the White Sox traded away Tadahito Iguchi in their summer housecleaning, Richar was given the opportunity to cement the second base job for 2008, but the jury is still out as to whether or not his .230/.289/.406 showing was enough to win him any job security. He’s not without skills, and could be an average second baseman in the end. Logan will likely never be a star, but as a big lefty who can get his fellow lefties out with good consistency, he’ll be around for a long time.
Two years after winning the World Series, the White Sox are now a 90-loss team with an aging roster and little help coming from a poor farm system. How quickly things change.
Indians Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
None
Four-Star Prospects
1. Adam Miller, RHP
2. Wes Hodges, 3B
3. Beau Mills, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
4. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
5. Nick Weglarz, LF
6. Aaron Laffey, LHP
7. Jensen Lewis, RHP
8. Josh Rodriguez, SS
Two-Star Prospects
9. Jordan Brown, 1B
10. Trevor Crowe, OF
11. David Huff, LHP
Just Missing: Brian Barton, OF; Jared Goedert, 3B; Scott Lewis, LHP; Matt Whitney, 1B
1. Adam Miller, RHP
DOB: 11/26/84
Height/Weight: 6-4/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2003, McKinney HS (TX)
2007 Stats: 4.82 ERA at Triple-A (65.1-68-21-68)
Year In Review: The top prospect in the system dominated early and was in line for a big league callup before going on the shelf with separate elbow and finger issues, the second time in three years that Miller has missed significant time due to inury.
The Good: When Miller is healthy and pitching, he remains awfully impressive. His low-to-mid 90s fastball can touch 98, and he backs it up with a low 90s sinker and plus slider. All three pitches can grade out above-average at times, and his changeup is solid.
The Bad: The biggest concern for Miller at this point is his health. He should be in the big leagues by now, but he can't stay healthy enough to put the polishing touches on his game to get there. Despite a big frame and smooth mechanics, some wonder if he wouldn't be better off in the bullpen in order to preserve his availability.
Fun Fact: With the bases empty, opposing batters hit .204/.269/.279 against Miller, but with runners on hitters became instant All-Stars, tattooing him for a .345/.411/.445 mark.
Perfect World Projection: Miller has the stuff to be a number two starter, and if he's switched to relief, he could develop into a quality closer.
Timetable: Miller is making up for some lost time by pitching in the Arizona Fall League, and he's set to begin 2008 back in Triple-A. He'll remain a starter for now, and he should be in line for a big league debut at some point in the season, provided that he can stay on the mound.
2. Wes Hodges, 3B
DOB: 9/14/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Georgia Tech
2007 Stats: .288/.367/.473 at High-A (104 G)
Year In Review: Last year's second-round pick impressed in his pro debut, flirting with .300 much of the year at High-A, and showing a late-season power surge by hitting seven of his 15 home runs coming in August.
The Good: Hodges is a highly-polished offensive player. He has a mature approach, laces line drives to all fields, and features plus power--he's already showing a knack for turning on inner-edge fastballs. He's a solid third baseman with soft hands and good arm strength.
The Bad: Hodges chases pitches at times, leading to a high strikeout rate. He's a tick below average as a runner, and while he's fundamentally sound at the hot corner, some question his range there. There is a difference of opinion among scouts as to whether Hodges is quietly intense or just a low-energy player.
Fun Fact: Hodges hit just one home run as a senior in high school, but he had an excuse--he broke a bone in his left hand, and could only hit from the left side, the only time he's done so in his baseball career. Even with that handicap, he hit .430.
Perfect World Projection: A third baseman who hits in the middle of the lineup.
Timetable: Just two years since being drafted, Hodges will begin 2008 at Double-A, and Andy Marte is no longer the roadblock to Hodges' future he once was.
3. Beau Mills, 1B
DOB: 8/15/86
Height/Weight: 6-3/220
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Lewis and Clark State
2007 Stats: .179/.303/.250 at Short-season (8 G); .271/.333/.435 at Low-A (44 G); .275/.375/.500 at High-A (10 G)
Year In Review: The 13th overall pick in the draft had a historic (.458/.556/1.033) season at the NAIA powerhouse, and moved up three levels after signing.
The Good: Plus-plus left-handed power is a highly desirable commodity, and Mills has it. Big, broad-shouldered, and strong, Mills attacks balls in the strike zone, and coming off of his bat, the ball gets plenty of loft and backspin. He shows solid pitch recognition, works hard to improve, and takes well to coaching.
The Bad: Mills is a below-average athlete and poor defender, already moving from third to first base since signing. He's not much better there, and some feel he'll be more of a DH in the end. His swing is not without holes, and his power-only approach could work against him at the upper levels.
Fun Fact: The son of Red Sox coach Brad Mills, Boston drafted Beau in the 44th round of the 2004 draft.
Perfect World Projection: Decent average, a good number of walks, and 30-40 home runs annually.
Timetable: Mills will likely begin 2008 where he ended last year, at High-A Kinston. If he excels there, he could be in Ryan Garko's rear-view mirror in short order.
4. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
DOB: 1/29/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 4th round, 2004, Serra HS (CA)
2007 Stats: 4.37 ERA at Double-A (146.1-153-68-123); 10.80 ERA at Triple-A (5-7-3-7)
Year In Review: One of the top lefties in the minors was surprisingly hittable at Double-A, but was still impressive at times, firing seven no-hit innings in May, and delivery quality starts in seven of his final 11 outings.
The Good: Lofgren's low-90s fastball grades up a bit for its movement and location, and his changeup baffles opposing hitters and is arguably the best in the system. His curveball can be plus at times, and is more of a slow, rolling breaker. He's big, extremely athletic, and still offers plenty of projection.
The Bad: Opinions vary widely as to why Lofgren struggled this year. Some point to him losing the feel on his curveball and abandoning it at times, others say he lived too much on the outside half of the plate and needs to be more aggressive.
Fun Fact: One of the top high schools in the country in terms of athletics, Serra alumni include Barry Bonds and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
Perfect World Projection: A third starter in a rotation.
Timetable: Despite his occasional struggles, there is no need for Lofgren to repeat the level. He'll begin 2008 in the Triple-A rotation, and his performance will dictate things from there. Most talent evaluators are predicting a turnaround.
5. Nick Weglarz, LF
DOB: 12/16/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 3rd round, 2005, Lakeshore Catholic HS (ON)
2007 Stats: .276/.395/.497 at Low-A (125 G); .143/.250/.571 at High-A (2 G)
Year In Review: After missing nearly all of 2006 due to injury, Canadian slugger had a breakout campaign with 24 home runs and 83 walks--and he doesn't turn 20 until December.
The Good: Built more like a linebacker, Weglarz has as much raw power as anyone in the system, and unlike many Canadian prospects, his hitting skills are not raw. He's a very patient hitter who works the count and waits on fastballs he can drive.
The Bad: Weglarz' swing has a natural uppercut, and while it works for him, it will always limit his pure contact ability. He's a slow runner, and his play in left field was a bit of an adventure at times; his arm is nothing special. He could lose more speed and end up at first base, but no matter where he ends up on the diamond, his bat is what will need to carry him to the big leagues.
Fun Fact: Weglarz was born and raised in the small town of Stevensville, Ontario, also the birthplace of James Kraft, the inventor of processed cheese.
Perfect World Projection: Not a great batting average, but tons of power and walks; sounds like a fifth-slot hitter to me.
Timetable: Despite the missed year in 2006, Weglarz is still at--if not slightly ahead of--his expected pace, because he was just 17 when drafted. He'll begin 2008 as a 20-year-old slugger in High-A.
6. Aaron Laffey, LHP
DOB: 4/15/85
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 16th round, 2003, Allegany HS (MD)
2007 Stats: 2.31 ERA at Double-A (35-29-7-24); 3.08 ERA at Triple-A (96.1-89-23-75); 4.56 ERA at MLB (49.1-54-12-25)
Year In Review: After receiving fourth-round money to sign four years ago, Laffey finally paid dividends by shooting through the upper levels of the system and earning a position on Cleveland's postseason roster, where he pitched 4 1/3 shutout innings in his only appearance.
The Good: Laffey's fastball has average velocity for a lefty, but he commands it effortlessly, and it features heavy, late sink. His slider and changeup are both solid offerings, and like his fastball, he locates them well. He studies his opponents, pitches without fear, and is generally seen as greater than the sum of his parts.
The Bad: On a pure scouting level, Laffey doesn't blow anyone away. He's on the smallish side for a pitcher, and he's likely fulfilled any projection he had.
Fun Fact: While Allegany High School in Maryland isn't known for its baseball pedigree, it did graduate one of the best actors of our generation, William H. Macy.
Perfect World Projection: Laffey has everything it takes to be a successful back-of-the-rotation starter.
Timetable: Laffey is lined up to spend all of 2008 in the big leagues, with his spring training performance playing a major factor in the determination of his immediate role.
7. Jensen Lewis, RHP
DOB: 5/16/84
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 3rd round, 2005, Vanderbilt
2007 Stats: 1.85 ERA at Double-A (39-27-13-49); 1.38 ERA at Triple-A (13-5-4-12); 2.15 ERA at MLB (29.1-26-10-34)
Year In Review: Moved to the bullpen in spring training, Jensen became a dominant force as a reliever, shooting through the upper levels and ending up as one of the Tribe's most dependable relievers down the stretch.
The Good: Jensen's best pitch is his changeup, a true plus offering that he sets up with a 89-92 mph fastball and a slurvy breaking pitch that serves him well. The reason Jensen is so effective is in his deceptive delivery. He hides the ball extremely well, and some batters have a nearly impossible time trying to pick it up coming out of Jensen's hand.
The Bad: It's hard to define Jensen's exact role. As good as he's been, he just doesn't have the stuff normally associated with late-inning relievers, and to put him in that role might be a risk.
Fun Fact: During his brief stint at Triple-A Buffalo, left-handed hitters went 1-for-19 with eight strikeouts against Lewis.
Perfect World Projection: In a perfect world, the Indians give him the chance to stick in a set-up role, and he succeeds.
Timetable: Jensen will open the year in Cleveland's bullpen; just slightly more than two years after being drafted, he's all but a finished product.
8. Josh Rodriguez, SS
DOB: 12/18/84
Height/Weight: 6-0/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2006, Rice University
2007 Stats: .262/.351/.460 at High-A (133 G)
Year In Review: After a disappointing junior season dropped him out of the first round in 2006, Rodriguez got off to a slow start at High-A Kinston in his full-season debut, but he finished with a bang, smacking 10 home runs in August.
The Good: Rodriguez has both the hand-eye coordination and the bat speed to hit for average and power in the big leagues. He makes good contact, uses all fields, and is patient in his approach. In the field, he turns to doubleplay well and has an above-average arm.
The Bad: Most agree that Rodriguez lacks the athleticism to play shortstop at the major league level. He's an average runner. His skill set is probably better suited to second base in the end, which wastes his arm a bit.
Fun Fact: While Rodriguez hit just .190 in the first inning of games, he nonetheless drew 15 walks against 63 at-bats for a .346 on-base percentage.
Perfect World Projection: An offense-oriented second baseman.
Timetable: Rodriguez is on a bit of a fast track, and will begin his second full season already at the Double-A level. The good news/bad news is that there is no obvious opening for him once he's ready.
9. Jordan Brown, 1B
DOB: 12/18/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 4th round, 2005, University of Arizona
2007 Stats: .333/.421/.484 at Double-A (127 G)
Year In Review: The 2006 Carolina League MVP followed that up by improving across the board and earning the same honor in the Eastern League.
The Good: Brown is the definition of the term 'professional hitter.' He works the count exceedingly well while still being aggressive, and he can hit any pitch anywhere in the strike zone, while adding gap power to the mix. He's an average defender at first base.
The Bad: Thick and slow, Brown is limited to first base, where his offensive profile doesn't really match. His level swing and contact-oriented approach is not conducive to much power. At 24, he's not exactly young and filled with untapped potential.
Fun Fact: Brown hit exactly .333 against both lefties and righties in 2007.
Perfect World Projection: The next Lyle Overbay?
Timetable: Because of what he is, Brown will have to prove himself at every level. The upside is that he'll start the year at Triple-A, so the proving process is almost complete.
10. Trevor Crowe, OF
DOB: 11/17/83
Height/Weight: 6-0/190
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, University of Arizona
2007 Stats: .259/.341/.353 at Double-A (133 G)
Year In Review: Entering the year as one of the better leadoff prospects around, Crowe struggled to get his average above the Mendoza line until midseason, but he found his swing after the All-Star break, batting .314/.384/.428 in the second half.
The Good: Crowe has top of the order skills, beginning with an ability to draw walks and a line-drive bat that makes solid contact from both sides of the plate. He has gap power and the speed to turn singles into doubles. He's a very good base stealer who reads pitchers well and gets excellent jumps.
The Bad: Crowe got into bad habits early in the year, tinkering with his swing instead of trusting his talent. He can be too patient at times, putting himself behind in the count by laying off pitches he should swing at. Despite his speed, he's a bit fringy in center field, with some criticizing his jumps and routes.
Fun Fact: Crowe hit .297 when playing center in 2007, but just .128 starting elsewhere, and not in a small sample (15-for-117).
Perfect World Projection: A guy with enough on-base skills to justify an everyday job; if not, he's a valuable reserve outfielder, one worth giving 200-300 PA to annually.
Timetable: Crowe's spring training showing and the numbers game will determine if he starts 2008 at Double- or Triple-A.
11. David Huff, LHP
DOB: 8/22/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, UCLA
2007 Stats: 2.72 ERA at High-A (59.2-57-15-46)
Year In Review: The polished left-hander was pitching very well at High-A before getting shut down at the end of May with a sore elbow.
The Good: Huff is a command-and-control lefty who lives off of his changeup, which features outstanding arm-action and late fade. His fastball doesn't light up radar guns at 87-89 mph, but it's more than enough to keep batters off balance when looking for his change. He works quickly and commands the strike zone exceedingly well.
The Bad: Huff's future might rely on how much progress he can make with his breaking ball, which currently doesn't break very much. His projection ends at big leaguer, as opposed to star.
Fun Fact: While Huff gave up five runs in his final start before being shut down, he began the season with 10 consecutive starts of allowing two or fewer earned runs.
Perfect World Projection: A solid fourth or fifth starter.
Timetable: Huff's elbow healed with rest instead of surgery, and he's now healthy and pitching well in the Arizona Fall League, lining himself up for a Double-A assignment next year.
The Sleeper: Many were surprised that high school left-hander T.J. McFarland was still around in the fourth round. He's a tall, skinny, projectable southpaw whose heat already sits in the low 90s, but he needs to work on his secondary offerings.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies 25 Years Old Or Younger (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Fausto Carmona, RHP
2. Adam Miller, RHP
3. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B
4. Wes Hodges, 3B
5. Beau Mills, 1B
6. Jeremy Sowers, LHP
7. Andy Marte, 3B
8. Chuck Lofgren, LHP
9. Nick Weglarz, LF
10. Aaron Laffey, LHP
While lacking elite-level talent, the Indians do have depth, as well as a young, talented big league team that has already reaped the rewards of their player development system. The best development was that they decided to stop trying to turn Carmona into something he's not, and in response, his performance finally matched his always-glowing scouting reports. As for Sowers, don't give up on him yet. He was hit hard for the first time in his career, and he stopped trusting his stuff and starting nibbling, which put him behind in the count far more often than a pitcher with his kind of stuff can afford; he still profiles as a solid back-end starter.
Cabrera came over in a highway-robbery deal with Seattle last year, and will start in the middle of the team's infield next year. He can hit, he can draw walks, he's the best defensive infielder on the team, and his instincts for the game are excellent. Ranking Marte on this list is the equivalent of a dart throw; you can find scouts who still have faith in his ability, and you can find some that have completely written him off.
Tigers Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Cameron Maybin, OF
2. Rick Porcello, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
None
Three-Star Prospects
3. Casey Crosby, LHP
4. Cale Iorg, SS
5. Brandon Hamilton, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
6. Jeff Larish, 1B
7. Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP
8. Scott Sizemore, 2B/SS
9. Michael Hollimon, 2B/SS
10. Yorman Bazardo, RHP
11. Dallas Trahern, RHP
Just Missing: Matt Joyce, OF; Virgil Vasquez, RHP; Danny Worth, SS
1. Cameron Maybin, OF
DOB: 4/4/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2005, Roberson HS (NC)
2007 Stats: .571/.667/.571 at Rookie-Level (2 G); .304/.393/.486 at High-A (83 G); .400/.538/1.050 at Double-A (6 G); .143/.208/.265 at MLB (24 G)
Year In Review: When not sidelined with shoulder problems, the elite-level prospect impressed in the Florida State League, hit four home runs in six Double-A games, and spent the last six weeks with the big league squad, where he rarely played, and rarely produced.
The Good: When it comes to tools, Maybin is Home Depot. He has outstanding size and athleticism, projecting to hit for average and power, while also being a total burner. He covers the ground in center field effortlessly, and his arm is outstanding. He’s shown a solid approach at the plate, has great instincts on the base paths, and backs up his natural ability with a strong work ethic.
The Bad: Maybin has accumulated lofty strikeout totals so far in his career, and his swing can get long at times. He understands the strike zone well, but needs to improve his pitch recognition, as he’s prone to chasing breaking balls out of the zone, a weakness that big league pitchers picked up on quickly and exploited.
Fun Fact: During his week at Double-A, Maybin stepped to the plate five times with runners in scoring position, resulting in two walks, two singles, and a home run.
Perfect World Projection: A transcendent star who puts fannies in the seats.
Timetable: Despite his season-ending big league stint, the Tigers are the first to admit that Maybin is not ready yet, and not part of their immediate big league plans. He’ll likely begin 2008 at Triple-A Toledo to put the finishing touches on his game.
2. Rick Porcello, RHP
DOB: 12/27/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/195
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Seton Hall Prep (NJ)
2007 Stats: Signed late; did not play
Year In Review: Entering the year as the top high school player in the draft, Porcello earned national player of the year honors despite not living up to the almost impossible expectations set for him. With Scott Boras setting his price tag, many teams passed on him in the first round, which is how he fell to Detroit at No. 27, where he was an easy choice for David Chadd considering his affinity for big guys who throw hard. Porcello signed at the deadline for a major league deal worth around $7 million.
The Good: Some scouting directors saw Porcello as the top high school right-hander of the decade, and the best since Josh Beckett went second overall in 1999. He has the ideal pitcher’s frame as well as clean, loose arm action. His fastball sits in the 92-96 mph range, touches 98, and some think there is plenty of room for more once his frame fills out. He throws two breaking balls, and scouts differ as to whether the slider or curve projects as the better pitch, as both already flash as plus at times. Despite never needing the pitch in high school, he knows what a changeup is and has some feel to it. He’s also a terrific athlete who fields his position well and is a very good hitter.
The Bad: Porcello ran into occasional control issues this year, but few see it as a long-term concern. He’ll need to improve his changeup, and some feel he’d be best served by focusing on just one breaking pitch.
Fun Fact: While Seton Hall Prep is famous for its athletics, producing a number of professional baseball and basketball players, it’s also played a role in the indie rock scene, graduating Ted Leo (Ted Leo & The Pharmacists) and guitarist Matt Sweeney (Chavez, Guided By Voices, Zwan).
Perfect World Projection: Another young stud starter with staff ace possibilities.
Timetable: Despite signing too late to make his pro debut, Porcello might start his career in a full-season league, at Low-A West Michigan. He has the ability to dominate the league in the same manner Clayton Kershaw did this year.
3. Casey Crosby, LHP
DOB: 9/17/88
Height/Weight: 6-5/200
Bats/Throws: R/L
Drafted: 5th round, 2007, Kaneland HS (IL)
2007 Stats: Signed late; did not play
Year In Review: The top high schooler in Illinois, Crosby fell in the draft due to bonus considerations, and Detroit scooped him up in the fifth round, then signed him to a nearly $750,000 bonus.
The Good: On pure talent, Crosby was one of the top three high school lefties available this June. Like Porcello, he represents Chadd’s affinity for tall power pitchers, as he’s got the height and can touch 94 mph with his fastball. He throws a hard slider that some rank as plus, and gets high scores for his makeup. Like Porcello, he’s also an excellent athlete.
The Bad: Crosby’s secondary pitches need work, as his slider can get sweepy at times, and his changeup is rudimentary. His three-quarters arm slot turns off some scouts, and his release point can vary when his multi-part mechanics get out of sync.
Fun Fact: He's from a small town (Maple Park, IL) in the far-western suburbs of Chicago. Crosby is the first player ever to be drafted out of Kaneland High School.
Perfect World Projection: A solid middle-of-the-rotation star, with some star potential.
Timetable: Another 2007 draftee who signed too late to play, Crosby’s 2008 assignment will be dictated by how he looks in spring training. He’s not nearly as polished as Porcello, and will likely need a short-season stint for the first dip of his toes into the pro waters.
4. Cale Iorg, SS
DOB: 9/6/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 6th round, 2005, University of Alabama
2007 Stats: .182/.308/.182 at Rookie-level (3 G); .278/.316/.389 at High-A (5 G)
Year In Review: An All-SEC Freshman in 2005, Iorg spent the last two years on a Mormon mission, but was draft-eligible because he turned 21 during his time away from the game. The Tigers drafted him in the sixth round and then surprised many by giving him a $1.5 million bonus--first-rounder money, when most had previously evaluated him as a second- or third-round talent.
The Good: Despite some feeling that the bonus was excessive, it was required to prevent Iorg from transferring to Arizona State, and he does have the tools and size to fit into the new mold of the modern shortstop. He has a quick bat, smooth swing, and could develop a bit of power with the necessary adjustments. He’s a tick above average as a runner, and a very good defender with excellent actions and a solid, accurate arm.
The Bad: Iorg hasn’t played the game for two years, so he was understandably raw in his return. He’s now 22 years old and has just one year of college baseball under his belt, so he’s well behind the standard development curve, with his combination of age and inexperience presenting a significant challenge.
Fun Fact: Iorg’s older brother Eli Iorg, a prospect in the Astros system, spent his two-year mission in Argentina, while Cale spent his in Portugal.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average everyday shortstop.
Timetable: Iorg’s showing in spring training will be the first extended look the team has gotten of Iorg in almost three years, and it will determine if he begins the year in Low- or High-A; the latter is more likely.
5. Brandon Hamilton, RHP
DOB: 12/25/88
Height/Weight: 6-2/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Stanhope Elmore HS (AL)
2007 Stats: 3.10 ERA at Rookie-level (20.1-12-12-23)
Year In Review: Alabama’s top high school arm had an up-and-down senior year, but (and I realize this is sounding like a broken record) as an arm-strength guy with good size, he fit well with the Tigers’ draft strategy and was very impressive in his pro debut.
The Good: Hamilton’s raw stuff is arguably first-round caliber, as he relies primarily on a 90-93 mph fastball that has touched 96 mph, as well as a slider that features depth and tilt and already ranks as a plus pitch. He works low in the zone and generates a good number of ground balls.
The Bad: Hamilton’s mechanics are far from ideal, leading to both command problems and injury concerns. All of his pitches can be inconsistent, and he’ll need to develop a changeup in order to remain a starter. He has a high ceiling, but many see him as no more than an arm strength guy who is too unrefined to develop into a star.
Fun Fact: During his brief pro debut, batters with runners in scoring position went 2-for-18 with seven strikeouts against Hamilton.
Perfect World Projection: A power pitcher; it’s too early to say anything more.
Timetable: Hamilton isn’t ready for a full-season league yet. He’ll most likely begin the year in extended spring training to work on the rougher edges of his game before reporting to Detroit’s New York-Penn League squad in June.
6. Jeff Larish, 1B
DOB: 10/11/82
Height/Weight: 6-2/200
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 5th round, 2005, Arizona State
2007 Stats: .267/.390/.515 at Double-A (132 G)
Year In Review: Following a solid but somewhat disappointing year in the Florida State League, Larish broke out in 2007, leading the Eastern League in home runs (28) and RBI (101).
The Good: Larish has the necessary secondary skills to be a big league first baseman. He has a patient approach, and draws walks in droves. Incredibly strong, he has plus power to all fields, and doesn’t have to make contact on the sweet spot of the bat in order to muscle it out of the park. While his range is below average at first base, he’s otherwise a good defender with soft hands and a knack for picking throws up out of the dirt.
The Bad: It’s hard to project Larish as any kind of future star, as his swing has a natural uppercut that helps his power, but also limits his long-term ability to hit for average. He’s a below-average runner.
Fun Fact: A highly-regarded player after his junior year who went unsigned by the Dodgers as a 17th-round pick in 2004, by playing four years of college baseball, Larish’s name is all over the Arizona State record books, as he ranks second in career home runs, trailing only Bob Horner, and second in career walks, behind Alvin Davis.
Perfect World Projection: A starting first baseman for a second-division team, or outstanding bench player in the mold of Craig Wilson, back when he was good.
Timetable: Carlos Guillen’s move to first base leaves Larish blocked for now. He'll begin the year at Triple-A Toledo, and could be one of their primary trading chips come July.
7. Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP
DOB: 3/12/84
Height/Weight: 5-11/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2001, Dominican Republic
2007 Stats: 3.41 ERA at Double-A (66-54-19-57); 3.52 ERA at Triple-A (38.1-41-18-25); 6.75 ERA at MLB (6.2-10-4-5)
Year In Review: The hard-throwing Dominican righty put together some dominating starts at Double-A, and spent a couple of weeks in the big league bullpen before going back down to a relief role at Triple-A.
The Good: De La Cruz’s stuff has always far surpassed his statistics. His heat sits consistently in the 93-96 mph range, touched 98 this year, and has hit triple digits in the past. His hard-breaking curve gives him a second plus pitch, and he has an acceptable changeup.
The Bad: De La Cruz’s fastball will never be as effective as his velocity would indicate, as the pitch comes in on a flat plane because of his smallish stature, features little movement, and is often elevated. He prefers to break his curveball into the dirt, and more advanced hitters have learned how to lay off the pitch and sit on the heater.
Fun Fact: In three big league road games, De La Cruz retired eight of the nine batters he faced. At home, 13 of 23 reached base.
Perfect World Projection: A late-innings reliever, but not a closer.
Timetable: De La Cruz will compete for a bullpen role in spring training, and will start the year at Triple-A if he doesn’t earn a big league job.
8. Scott Sizemore, 2B/SS
DOB: 1/4/85
Height/Weight: 6-0/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 5th round, 2006, Virginia Commonwealth
2007 Stats: .265/.376/.390 at Low-A (125 G)
Year In Review: The advanced college hitter got off to a surprisingly slow start in full-season debut, but came on strong at the end of the season, hitting .311/.396/.469 after the All-Star break.
The Good: Sizemore’s bat is his best tool. He works the count well, rarely strikes out, and has gap power. Defensively, he’s fundamentally sound at second, turns the double play well, but he can also play shortstop in a pinch.
The Bad: Sizemore will never hit many home runs. He’s no more than an average runner and can’t play on the left side every day, meaning he has to project as an everyday player on the right side.
Fun Fact: When batting first or third in the West Michigan lineup, Sizemore went 5-for-37 (.135).
Perfect World Projection: An average starter at second base, with some possibilities to develop into a utility player.
Timetable: Sizemore has been impressing scouts in the Arizona Fall League, where he has been playing exclusively at shortstop. While he’s slated to begin 2008 at High-A, the Tigers hope to have him at Double-A by midseason.
9. Michael Hollimon, 2B/SS
DOB: 6/14/82
Height/Weight: 6-1/185
< b>Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted: 16th round, 2005, Oral Roberts
2007 Stats: .282/.371/.478 at Double-A (127 G); .211/.250/.368 at Triple-A (5 G)
Year In Review: After putting up big Low-A numbers in 2006 that were somewhat mitigated by his age, Hollimon skipped High-A, but didn’t skip a beat offensively at Double-A.
The Good: Hollimon has an above-average offensive skill set for a middle infielder. He works the count well and has at least average power. He’s a very good base runner who is fundamentally sound with the glove. He’s a hard worker who sets an example for other players in terms of both behavior and commitment to the game.
The Bad: Hollimon is not especially fast and has already been moved from shortstop to second base; even there, his range is a little short. Because he played four years at college, he’s already 25, so he’s behind the curve developmentally and has no more projection.
Fun Fact: Hollimon his .262/.362/.440 as a second baseman, but was at .339/.389/.585 when in the lineup as a shortstop.
Perfect World Projection: A second-division starter or utility player.
Timetable: Hollimon will begin the year at Triple-A, and his ability to fill in at multiple positions will put him on the short list for a call up should the need arise.
10. Yorman Bazardo, RHP
DOB: 7/11/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/220
Bats/Throws: R/R
Acquired: NDFA, 2000, Venezuela (Mariners)
2007 Stats: 3.75 ERA at Triple-A (136.2-134-43-69); 2.28 ERA at MLB (23.2-19-5-15)
Year In Review: Acquired from the Mariners for outfielder Jeff Frazier prior to spring training, Bazardo pitched at an acceptable level for Detroit’s Triple-A team, and finished the year with some impressive showings in the big leagues.
The Good: Bazardo’s got big league stuff--his fastball ranges from 91-95 mph, and both his curveball and changeup rate as average offerings. He works quickly, keeps his pitches down, throws strikes, and mixes his pitches well.
The Bad: Bazardo doesn’t have that one go-to offering when he needs it, and he has trouble missing bats more often than not. There have been some makeup questions in the past with him, but those seem to be a thing of the past.
Fun Fact: During his 21 starts for Triple-A Toledo, Bazardo has a 5.57 ERA in the first inning, and a 1.31 mark in the second.
Perfect World Projection: Bazardo could be equally effective as a starter or reliever. His best role might be as a swingman.
Timetable: Bazardo will be given the opportunity to earn a big league job in spring training, but as with De La Cruz, it could be an uphill battle.
11. Dallas Trahern, RHP
DOB: 11/29/85
Height/Weight: 6-3/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 34th round, 2004, Owasso HS (OK)
2007 Stats: 3.87 ERA at Double-A (162.2-177-51-92); 2.84 ERA at Triple-A (6.1-5-3-2)
Year In Review: An obscure 34th-round pick three years ago, Trahern continued to get the job done, getting off to a great start at Double-A before a late-season slide brought his overall numbers down.
The Good: Trahern is a ground-ball machine, often giving outfielders the night off when his 88-91 mph sinker is on, which is more often than not. He mixes in a slider and changeup to keep hitters honest, but lives off the sinker. He’s a good athlete who is especially adept at fielding bunts.
The Bad: Trahern doesn’t strike out many hitters, and likely never will. His slider can flatten out at times, and his changeup needs considerable improvement. Left-handers feast on Trahern, hitting .308 against him this year with only 43 strikeouts in 318 at-bats. Many scouts are convinced that Trahern’s arsenal will never work at the big league level.
Fun Fact: Trahern’s high school alma mater drew throngs of scouts this year to see Cardinals first-round pick Peter Kozma, and draws throngs of country music fans year-round as stars Garth Brooks and Trisha Yearwood live on a ranch in the small town of Owasso.
Perfect World Projection: A back-of-the-rotation starter that does wonders for his infielders' range factors.
Timetable: Trahern will attempt to continue his conversion of non-believers at Triple-A in 2008, and could make his big league debut at some point during the season.
The Sleeper: People aren’t really sure what to make of catcher Jamie Skelton. At 5-foot-11 and around 165 pounds, he’s likely the slightest-built backstop you’ll ever see at the pro level, but at the same time he hit .309/.402/.448 this year in the Midwest League while throwing out 42.5 percent of opposing basestealers.
The Big Picture: Rankings Combined With Non-Rookies Under 25 (As Of Opening Day 2008)
1. Cameron Maybin, OF
2. Rick Porcello, RHP
3. Andrew Miller, LHP
4. Joel Zumaya, RHP
5. Casey Crosby, LHP
6. Cale Iorg, SS
7. Brandon Hamilton, RHP
8. Jeff Larish, 1B
9. Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP
10. Scott Sizemore, 2B/SS
Generally seen as the top arm in the 2006 draft class, Miller reached the big leagues quickly, but has failed to really impress, as mechanical inconsistencies have led to control problems and less effective secondary pitches. There’s still plenty of optimism with him, but there aren't nearly as many projecting stardom for him as there were back when he was at North Carolina.
Already a below-average system, the Tigers’ prospect list was hurt considerably by the Edgar Renteria trade, which cost them Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens, players who would have ranked third and fourth on this list, respectively. Much of the organization's future improvement in this regard revolves around the 2007 draft class, for which scouting director David Chadd was given a blank check. The good news is that they are still a primarily young, talented team at the big league level. The bad news is that any real help after Maybin might be a while in coming.
Royals Top 11 Prospects
Five-Star Prospects
1. Mike Moustakas, SS
Four-Star Prospects
2. Luke Hochevar, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
3. Daniel Cortes, RHP
4. Billy Buckner, RHP
5. Danny Duffy, LHP
Two-Star Prospects
6. Blake Wood, RHP
7. Carlos Rosa, RHP
8. Julio Pimentel, RHP
9. Sam Runion, RHP
One-Star Prospects
10. Mitch Maier, OF
11. Chris Lubanski, OF
Just Missing: Blake Johnson, RHP; Mario Lisson, 2B; Adrian Ortiz, OF
1. Mike Moustakas, SS
DOB: 9/11/88
Height/Weight: 6-0/195
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2007, Chatsworth HS (CA)
2007 Stats: .293/.383/.439 at Rookie-level (11 G)
Year In Review: Already one of the top high school hitters in the country, Moustakas assaulted the California record book in his senior year, setting a state record for career home runs before being selected by the Royals with the second overall pick.
The Good: Moustakas’ hitting skills are nearly flawless. He has plus-plus power thanks to a lightning-quick bat and an ability to consistently get the meat of the bat on the ball. He projects to hit for both average and power, as he focuses solely on contact and lets his strength just work for him, as opposed to focusing on pulling or muscling up on pitches. He’s a solid athlete with plus-plus arm strength who reached 97 mph throwing from the mound as his high school team’s closer.
The Bad: Nearly all questions about Moustakas revolve around his defense. While he played shortstop in his pro debut, he lacks the first-step quickness or instincts to play there at the highest level. He has the athleticism to play second base, which would waste his arm, though he might profile better there than third base, which is more of a 'read and react' position. He also caught during much of his high school career, and while his arm is a major asset behind the plate, he’s a poor receiver; returning there is an unlikely scenario.
Fun Fact: As well as being an athletic powerhouse that produced another 2007 first-round pick (Matt Dominguez) and former Red Sox great Dwight Evans, Chatsworth has an even more impressive list of Hollywood alumni, including Val Kilmer and Kevin Spacey.
Perfect World Projection: A middle infielder who hits 30-40 home runs annually with an average hovering around the .300 mark.
Timetable: Moustakas will begin the year in Burlington, where a hitter with his upside has rarely been seen.
2. Luke Hochevar<, RHP
DOB: 9/15/83
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 1st round, 2006, University of Tennessee
2007 Stats: 4.69 ERA at Double-A (94-110-26-94); 5.12 ERA at Triple-A (58-53-21-44); 2.13 ERA at MLB (12.2-11-4-5)
Year In Review: The top pick in the 2006 draft reached the majors during his full-season debut, but he was far from dominant, getting hit fairly hard at both Double- and Triple-A.
The Good: Hochevar still has the size, stuff, and command to be a frontline starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s, touches 95 mph, and features good movement. His curveball is his best pitch--a power breaker that often freezes batters; both his slider and changeup are at least average. His command and control are both excellent, and he’s a plus athlete who carries his stuff deep into ballgames and while maintaining a low pitch count.
The Bad: While nobody has an excuse for Hochevar’s struggles, few have a good explanation for it, either. He’s a very cerebral player, some feel too much for his own good, suggesting that he tries too hard to make every pitch perfect, often nibbling at the corners and trying too much to fool batters, leaving him behind in the count and subsequently forced to throw strikes down the middle. He needs to trust his stuff more, trust his defense, and understand that his pitches are good enough to retire hitters, even when they know what’s coming.
Fun Fact: During his brief major league debut, 23 batters hit .421/.522/.684 against Hochever with the bases empty, yet 31 batters with runners on hit just .111/.200/.148.
Perfect World Projection: Few saw Hochevar as a true number one starter, even when he was drafted last year. Most scouts who saw him this year didn’t lower the projection on him too much, though, still seeing him as a number two or three in the end.
Timetable: There isn't an immediate opening in the Royals rotation, so Hochevar will begin the season at Triple-A Omaha, hoping to force his way in.
3. Daniel Cortes, RHP
DOB: 3/4/87
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: White Sox 7th round, 2005, Garey HS (CA)
2007 Stats: 3.07 ERA at High-A (123-102-45-120)
Year In Review: Considered more of a throw-in in the deal that sent Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for Tyler Lumsden, Cortes took every part of his game a major step forward in 2007, finishing the year with impressive statistics and equally impressive scouting reports.
The Good: Big and aggressive, Cortes lives off his 91-94 mph fastball which features some cutting action that makes him especially effective against left-handed hitters. He throws a hard breaking ball that features good downward action, and shows some feel for a change. He finished the year on a roll, allowing just three earned runs over 41 innings in his final seven starts.
The Bad: Cortes can struggles with his command at times, but like everything else, he improved throughout the season. His secondary pitches, especially his changeup, need to be improved, and he’ll need to mix them in more at the upper levels, as opposed to relying primarily on his fastball. He sometimes gets into trouble be working too high in the strike zone.
Fun Fact: While Cortes had an 8-8 record in 2007 over 24 starts, he did not record a win in his first 11, or get tagged for a loss in his last eight.
Perfect World Projection: An innings-eating number three starter.
Timetable: While a number of starters had big years at Wilmington, scouts were universal in their belief that Cortes was preepared to succeed at Double-A, where he’ll begin 2008.
4. Billy Buckner, RHP
DOB: 8/27/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted: 2nd round, 2004, University of South Carolina
2007 Stats: 4.66 ERA at Double-A (19.1-20-6-13); 3.78 ERA at Triple-A (104.2-108-26-83); 5.29 ERA at MLB (34-37-16-17)
Year In Review: Solid but unspectaculr righty continued steady climb up the ladder, pitching well enough at Triple-A to get a major league look.
The Good: Buckner gets strikeouts with his plus curveball, a big looper that he can throw for strikes or into the dirt. His 88-91 sinking fastball is also an effective pitch that he commands well to generate plenty of groundballs. His changeup is good enough to keep hitters honest. Squarely built and broad shouldered, Buckner has good stamina and has clean mechanics.
The Bad: Buckner needs to works more on his pitch sequences, as smart opposing hitters simply sit on his curveball when he stops setting it up with his heater. He’s a finished product who isn’t expected to get much better.
Fun Fact: Buckner will join Hochevar in the Triple-A rotation, w